Talent Agglomeration And Real Estate Market Fluctuation Under The Reform Of Urban Household Registration System

With the change of population structure and the rise of dependency ratio,the trend of demographic dividend declining emerges in China.The long-term stable development of cities requires the injection of young human resources.In recent years,in order to compete for talent resources,many cities have released a series of talents introduction measures,mainly including the reform of the household registration system and related policies.The gathering of talents promoted by the reform of the household registration system,which not only releases the population density benefits and promotes the economic development,but also causes or intensifies the imbalance between the housing supply and demand.It is crucial for a scientific evaluation of the effects of talents introduction and settlement policies if we accurately assess the relationship between urban participation in the "war for talents" and its real estate market price fluctuation.It can also provide practical reference for the reform of household registration system as well as the accurate adjustment of relevant policies.In this paper,we select the data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China and divide them into experimental group and control group,and use the synthetic control method to simulate the cities participating in the "war for talents" to analyze the impacts of the talents introduction and resettlement policies on the fluctuation of urban house prices accurately.On this basis,based on the big data of the house transaction records of LianJia,this paper deeply discusses the differential influences of the household registration system reform on the housing price of different areas,rooms and ages in various cities.The main conclusions are that:The impact direction of participation in the "war for talents" on urban housing prices is uncertain.In general,the implementation of the reform policy of household registration system drives the housing prices up in most cities.The growth of housing prices is different in cities due to the intensity of talent introduction policies.For some cities,the rapid expansion and high level of public services weaken the driving effects of housing demand caused by the reform of household registration system on the housing prices,making the housing prices lower than their potential growth path.The housing prices of a few cities are not affected by their participation in the "war for talents",which is closely related to the elasticity of housing supply,geographical location and climate conditions.In addition,we also analyze the heterogeneity of various housing price fluctuations in different cities by using big data.The results show that the effects of talent introduction and settlement policies on housing prices vary from city to city.There are obvious differences in the growth ranges of different types of housing prices;among them the growth rates of large and medium-sized housing prices in most cities are higher than that of small-sized houses.The housing area is directly related to the number of rooms,so the larger the housing area,the more the number of rooms.Therefore,the fluctuation characteristics of house prices according to the classification of housing floor area and room number are consistent.Comparing the growth rate of housing prices of different housing ages,we can get the conclusion that the shorter the housing age,the higher the growth rate of housing price.This is not only due to the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of housing construction in cities,but also depends on the relative growth rate of land prices and housing construction prices,as well as the intensity of the subsidy policy for talent purchase house and consumers’preferences for housing.Since participating in the "war for talents" does not necessarily push up the housing prices of cities,local governments should not worry too much about the promotion effects of housing prices when increasing the intensity of talents introduction,nor should they stimulate the real estate market by attracting talents and expanding housing demand.At the same time,we should adhere to the principle of“living and not speculating",strictly control housing speculation,prevent excessive expectations,and focus on solving the problem of unstable and unbalanced development of the real estate market.While the effects of talents introduction and settlement policies in different real estate markets of cities are not the same,each city should not follow the trend in the reform of the household registration system but implement policies according to the reality of the city.That is,the local government should adjust the talents introduction policies and real estate development measures fully based on the city’s land price level,housing supply elasticity and residents’ preference to achieve the high-quality development of the urban economy with the help of the high-level talents.