| In May 2018,the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and comprehensively restored sanctions against Iran in phases.In view of this,Iran also announced in 2019 that it would no longer abide by the restrictions imposed by the Iran nuclear agreement on Iran’s nuclear program,which brought the Iranian nuclear issue to the forefront again.In fact,the United States has been playing an important role in the development process of the Iranian nuclear issue.In the 1950s,out of the need to confront the Soviet Union,the United States actively attracted Iran,exported nuclear technology to Iran,helped Iran to build nuclear facilities,and carried out nuclear energy development and utilization.On this basis,Iran began to develop a nuclear program.After the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1797,the new Iranian regime was full of hostility towards the United States and rejected the intervention of the United States government in Iran’s internal affairs and diplomacy.U.S.-Iran relations began to be in a state of confrontation.The conflict between the two sides is centered on the Iranian nuclear issue.The United States firmly believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran has the potential to manufacture nuclear weapons and requires Iran to stop developing nuclear fuel,and even,completely abandon its nuclear program.But Iran insists on its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy for its strategic goal of safeguarding national security and expanding its regional influence.The United States and Iran launched a protracted confrontation over the Iranian nuclear issue.The United States’foreign policy towards Iran on the Iranian nuclear issue is dominated by coercive diplomacy.It tried to force Iran to comply with its requirements through economic sanctions,diplomatic isolation,and threats of force.The direct goal of the United States’ coercive diplomacy against Iran is to make Iran stop uranium enrichment and other nuclear fuel development activities that may be used to make nuclear weapons,and even completely abandon its nuclear program;the deep-seated goal is to force Iran to yield through pressure and threats,and to stop Iran from seeking become a major power in the Middle East and expand its influence in the region,in order to maintain the United States’ hegemonic dominance in the region.In the United States’view,if Iran possesses nuclear weapons,it will pose a major challenge to the security of the Middle East and the stability of the regional order.Judging from the results,the United States’ coercive diplomacy towards Iran has not fully achieved its goals at the two levels,and it has been hit back hard by Iran.In general,the reasons that affect the effect of coercive diplomacy of the United States are mainly as follows:First of all,the United States and Iran have different levels of interest demands on the Iranian nuclear issue.The two countries are based on the inequality of interests,that is,under the objective situation that Iran’s interest demands are stronger than that of the United States,resulting in asymmetry of motivation in the strategic game between the two countries.For Iran,having an independent nuclear capability is crucial to national sovereignty and security,national independence,national strength and influence,while for the United States,gaining an advantage on the Iranian nuclear issue is more related to its hegemonic interests.Secondly,due to various reasons,the absolute superiority of US military power has not been transformed into relative superiority over Iran,making the United States’ threat of force against Iran less effective.Thirdly,the degree of support for its coercive diplomacy policy at home and abroad also has a significant impact on the coercive diplomacy of the United States.On the one hand,the domestic public opinion in the United States expressed dissatisfaction and opposition to the coercive diplomacy measures against Iran,such as the sanctions and military threats.In addition,Iran’s high recognition of the development of a nuclear program has increased the political will of Iranian policymakers to oppose coercion.The two work together further,and reduce the effectiveness of US coercive diplomacy.On the other hand,other relevant countries in the international community have their own interest considerations and strategic trade-offs on issues such as economic and trade relations with Iran and the construction of nuclear facilities.Therefore,there are certain restrictions on the coercive diplomacy of the United States on the Iranian nuclear issue.Finally,there is the impact of the United States’ perceptual errors on the effectiveness of its coercive diplomacy. |