| History shows us that there was instability in relations between Burundi and Rwanda.The two countries which are often regarded as twin countries,presenting an almost identical historical and linguistic heritage,cultural norms and practices and social and political structures.The two former Belgian colonial territories have emerged from comparable examples of genocidal violence and rebel-led transitions.Yet,these transitions happened in radically different ways.The Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic Front(RPF)came to power through a military victory and established a strong,donor-darling state with an exaggerated presence on the international stage.The Hutu-dominated Burundi National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy(CNDD-FDD)has forced a Tutsi-controlled army to negotiate a power-sharing agreement and now chairs a government divided with little influence beyond its national borders.This thesis argues that these divergent transitions are not simply the result of contingent and idiosyncratic factors such as war,genocide,end of conflict,external influences or individual rulers.Before the CNDD-FDD came to power,Burundi-Rwanda relations were good.But some time during the reign of the CNDD-FDD,things were changed.This thesis explains and demonstrates why and how leadership is linked to this instability.The argument rests on three empirical results.Firstly,if the Burundian leaders and the Rwandan leaders are of the same ethnicity,then Burundi-Rwanda relations remain good.Secondly,if the Burundian leaders and the Rwandan leaders are of different ethnicities and one commits acts of aggression against the others,and then those on the others side manage to remain calm,then Burundi-Rwanda relations remain good.Thirdly,when the Rwandan leaders and the Burundian leaders are of different ethnicities and one commits acts of aggression against the others,and then those on the other side retaliate them,then the Burundi-Rwanda relations become bad. |
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