Research On The Influence Of Delayed Retirement Policy For Youth Employment In China

With the rapid growth of China’s current economy,the average life expectancy and people’s years of education have been improved,and the number of years for elderly workers to participate in labor has also been extended.It is obvious that the current retirement age policy has not adapted to China’s development status,so it is imperative to delay retirement.Although it can alleviate the pressure of pension payment to a certain extent,the impact of delayed retirement policy on China’s labor market and youth employment is a problem worthy of study,which is of great significance to the formulation of employment and social security policies in China.First of all,the paper combs the current domestic and foreign delayed retirement policies.On the basis of literature review,it introduces the life cycle hypothesis theory and job search theory to analyze the rationality of the results of the implementation of delayed retirement policy in China.The results show that rational individuals will choose delayed retirement in order to maximize the life cycle effect;Secondly,from the perspective of the current changes of China’s employment market,this paper analyzes the current situation and structural changes of China’s employment market from a macro perspective.Based on the labor supply curve,this paper analyzes the impact of the new young labor force and the old labor force before and after the delay of retirement on the theoretical level;Thirdly,according to the retirement age,the implementation population and the implementation area,the paper designs a variety of deferred retirement schemes,and finally selects the "three years to extend one year" deferred retirement scheme.The Grey Prediction GM（1,1）model is used to predict the number of elderly employment population and young employment population entering the labor market from 2020 to 2035;Finally,this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the new youth employment population and the middleaged and elderly employment population in the labor market after delayed retirement through VAR model This paper analyzes the correlation between the number of new youth employment population and the number of elderly employment population in China from four aspects,such as variance decomposition analysis,and the impact of delayed retirement policy on the number of youth employment in China.Finally,it analyzes the impact of delayed retirement policy on the quality of youth employment in the future.The results show that: first,the more inclined the demand curve of the employment market is,the greater the slope is,the more obvious the "crowding out effect" on the youth group is.However,when the demand curve is higher,the economic growth is earlier,the full employment can be realized,and the effect on youth employment is smaller.Secondly,there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the variables "employment number of the elderly" and "employment number of the young".Under the policy of delaying retirement,the increase of employment number of the elderly has little influence on the employment number of the young.In the short term,the increase of employment number of the elderly has a positive effect on the increase of employment number of the young,and tends to be stable in the long term;Third,the increase of the number of elderly labor force is conducive to the employment of young people.The two are not a reciprocal relationship,but a complementary process.In addition,the results show that the development of the tertiary industry plays a positive role in promoting the employment quality of young people in China after the implementation of the policy.