Research On The Influence Of Full Three Child And Delayed Retirement On The Payment Rate Of Endowment Insurance

With the continuous development of medical and health care,the average life expectancy of our people has increased significantly.According to the results released by the National Health Commission,the average life expectancy of China’s population has reached 77.93 years in 2022,an increase of about 1.59 years over the average life expectancy in 2015,which also indicates that the life expectancy of China’s population is likely to continue to increase in the future.According to the data of China Statistical Yearbook 2022,at the end of 2021,China’s elderly population aged 65 and above accounted for 14.2%of the total population of the country,and the dependency ratio of the elderly reached 20.8%,a record high,but the birth rate and population growth rate were only 7.52 ‰ and 0.34 ‰,both of which were record low.The increase of life expectancy and the decline of birth rate also have a negative impact on the development of China’s pension insurance system.In order to solve the problem of implicit debt in the transition process of China’s pension insurance system in the 1990s,the Chinese government has formulated a higher contribution rate of pension insurance,but the high contribution rate not only increases the employment cost of enterprises,but also causes enterprises to refuse to pay pension insurance premiums and other problems,which is extremely detrimental to the improvement and development of China’s pension insurance system.In addition,the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the policy of gradually delaying the legal retirement age can have an effect on the aging trend of the population and is of great significance to the growth of China’s pension insurance funds.Therefore,in order to alleviate the problems caused by the high contribution rate and the aging population to the pension insurance system of our country,it is very necessary to consider the pension insurance contribution rate under the background that the three-child policy has been fully implemented and the retirement policy has been delayed in some provinces and cities.Based on this,this study combines the three-child policy and the delayed retirement policy,and establishes a generation overlap model including two-way altruism and retirement age.Firstly,the explicit expression formula of the endowment insurance contribution rate is solved according to the balance conditions of individuals,enterprises,governments and capital markets.Secondly,we use the PADIS-INT software to give different birth rate assumptions after the implementation of the three-child policy,and examine the impact of different combinations of birth rate and retirement age on the endowment insurance contribution rate and the pension level of the pooling account,and then it further explores the economic effects of the change of the endowment insurance contribution rate in the range of 14%-21%.Finally,the consumption preferences of individuals in their working period,their consumption preferences in their old age,their parents’ consumption preferences in their old age The sensitivity analysis is made on the personal inheritance preference and capital contribution share left to the next generation.The results show that:first,the birth rate of the fixed population,the retirement age and the contribution rate of the pension insurance are inversely variable,and the contribution rate of the pension insurance will decline with the increase of the retirement age.With fixed retirement age,the population birth rate and endowment insurance contribution rate change in the opposite direction.The higher the population birth rate,the lower the endowment insurance contribution rate.The increase of retirement age and the increase of population birth rate will reduce the endowment insurance contribution rate.Under different combinations of population birth rate and retirement age,the variation range of the endowment insurance contribution rate is 5.61%-13.01%,which is lower than the current endowment insurance contribution rate in China.Therefore,the implementation of the delayed retirement policy and the three-child policy will help to reduce the endowment insurance contribution rate;Second,the pension level of the overall plan account decreases with the increase of the retirement age and the increase of the birth rate of the population.Therefore,the government needs to provide corresponding subsidies to China’s pension insurance fund when implementing corresponding policies to avoid the decline of pension benefits due to the implementation of the three-child policy and the delayed retirement policy;Third,higher pension contributions will reduce the cost of raising the next generation,individual wage income,personal account pension and individual consumption during the working life,but will increase the growth rate of output,employee savings,pooled account pension and individual consumption during the retirement period.Therefore,it is suggested that the government should reduce endowment insurance payment rate reasonably considering various factors considering the actual situation of our social development.