Effect Of Floating Population On Pension’s Sustainability

With the inter-regional transfer of pension insurance to continue the work started,the integration of mobile population into the city in particular,is intended to inflow into the city will increase the pension.Therefore,the higher the level of pension benefits in Beijing will attract a large number of migrants choose to live in Beijing for a long time,pension.When these migrant insured populations become retirees over time,this will have a certain effect on the pension in Beijing.Therefore,the study of the impact of floating population on the sustainability of pension in Beijing will not only draw attention to the issue of migrant welfare,but also have important reference for ensuring the future financial sustainability of our cities and the stability of pension insurance system.And guiding significance.Based on the theory of social security actuarial,this paper explores the impact of migrant population choice on the sustainability of local pension in Beijing under the background of national pension plan and the age shift algorithm and gray model.The first part of this paper reviews the development of the pension system in Beijing and analyzes the current situation of the floating population and its endowment insurance.In the second aspect,by the age shift algorithm and the gray GM(1,1)model,we calculate the number of urban and rural employees participating in urban and rural migrant workers’ pension insurance in the next 50 years under the current pension reform.Participate in two or more pension insurance system for the number of insured.Thirdly,on the basis of the above research,this paper predicts and analyzes the pension gap in Beijing through the establishment of the pension income,expenditure and gap model in Beijing.Then,based on the reasons of the pension gap,the paper puts forward that by increasing the insured population And the nominal account system to solve the problem of pension sustainability in Beijing and to study its feasibility.Finally,based on the feasibility study of Beijingpension optimization plan and other countries in the world to ensure the sustainability of the pension,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve the pension of Beijing.The main conclusion of the thesis is that under the current pension system,the migrant population is mostly the contributory population of the basic pension insurance of Beijing urban workers in a relatively short period of time.Therefore,the basic pension insurance benefits of urban workers in Beijing will continue But if the time is postponed to the next 50 years,along with the gradual retirement of the floating population in Beijing to become a pensioner population,then the future of Beijing Urban Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees The current gap of gold is there,and Beijing urban basic pension insurance period gap is inversely proportional to the relationship,that is,the longer the basic pension insurance for urban workers in Beijing is the current gap is greater.It can be seen that the sustainable development of Beijing pension will be affected in the next 50 years.Based on the above prediction,this paper proposes to solve the problem of pension sustainability in Beijing by increasing the number of insured population and the system of nominal accounts,and to increase the proportion of migrants to participate in the basic pension insurance for urban workers in Beijing.The feasibility of these two optimization schemes is validated by comparing the three different schemes of the nominal account.The results show that increasing the number of foreign population can alleviate the problem of pension gap in Beijing.However,considering that China has some restrictions on the total urban population,the number of foreign insured population should be limited to an appropriate range.In addition,the "full account" program in the Nominal Account System program is more feasible.Therefore,the above two optimization schemes not only provide a feasible solution for the sustainable development of the pension in Beijing,but also provide a reference for the sustainable development of China’s pension.