Prediction Of The Development Trend Of The Pre-school Population In Beijing And Analysis Of The Demand For Pre-school Education Resources

In view of the huge challenges faced by preschool education at present,such as "difficult to enter the park,expensive to enter the park" and other social problems,this paper,from the perspective of preschool population,on the premise of the implementation of the current "comprehensive two child" policy,comprehensively considers a variety of influencing factors to predict the preschool population in Beijing.Analyzing the current situation of preschool population and predicting the future trend of preschool population are the premise of making preschool education policy scientifically and allocating preschool education resources reasonably.Based on the prediction of pre-school population and the analysis of the demand for pre-school education resources,this paper proposes an improved Leslie population prediction model for the prediction of pre-school population in Beijing,which is based on the Beijing statistical data from 1978 to 2018,including the 2010 census data of the National Bureau of statistics,the data and spot check data of the Beijing Statistical Yearbook,the statistical data of the Ministry of education,etc.Using qualitative and quantitative methods,theoretical and empirical methods,combined with demography,applied statistics and mathematics and other aspects of knowledge,using MATLAB,Excel,eviws and other application analysis software,based on the improved Leslie model,the pre-school population in Beijing was predicted and the results were analyzed.Through the error analysis of the improved model,the validity of the model prediction results is verified.Based on the prediction results of the pre-school population in Beijing,according to the relevant policies of the Ministry of education and the actual situation of Beijing,this paper analyzes the demand of the pre-school education resources in Beijing,including the number of kindergarten degrees,classes,staff and full-time teachers.Finally,some suggestions are given for the prediction results.In view of the situation that the pre-school population rises slowly first and then declines,this paper puts forward three suggestions: first,to continue to implement the policy of encouraging childbearing;second,to reduce the cost of pre-school education for families.Third,reasonably allocate preschool education resources.