Research On The Supply And Demand Forecast And Countermeasures Of Preschool Education Resources In Shandong Province From The Perspective Of Population Chang

Population and education are two factors that influence and restrict each other.The number of population affects the scale of education development and the allocation of education resources,while the scale of education and the supply of resources will also affect the quantity and quality of population.With the continuous and rapid development of economy and society,the change of fertility concept and the implementation of the new policy of "three children",grasping the changing trend of school-age population is an important premise for realizing the rational allocation of preschool education resources and avoiding the waste or insufficiency of resources.Compared with other provinces,Shandong Province has a more obvious response to the "universal two-child policy".The growth and decline of Shandong’s population are basically closely related to the growth and decline of the whole Chinese population.Taking Shandong Province as an example can better reflect the general direction of the population change’s demand for preschool education resources and predict the impact of the "three-child" policy on preschool education resources,so as to timely adjust the allocation of resources and realize the development goals of preschool education popularization,affordable and balance.Based on the theory of structural function and the theory of equilibrium between supply and demand,this paper explores the change trend of preschool education age population in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2035 and its impact on the demand for preschool education resources,analyzes the supply and demand of preschool education resources in Shandong Province,and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.The results show that,first,the future preschool education age population will show a downward trend of "valley-peak alternation",affected by the fade of the "single two-child" and "comprehensive two-child" policies,the number of children in kindergartens in Shandong Province will show a declining trend from 2022 to 2026,and then the number of kindergarten children affected by the "three-child" new policy will increase slightly in 2026,reach a peak in 2028,and then show a slow downward trend.At the same time,the distribution of preschool education resources in Shandong Province is obviously different,and the layout problems of existing kindergartens and their supporting preschool education resources have occurred.Depending on the number of women of childbearing age in each region,there will be a significant imbalance in the number of children in preschool education.Second,the change in the demand for full-time teachers and childcare workers in future preschool education in Shandong Province is generally consistent with the change trend of the demand for degrees,both of which began to rise in 2026 and reached a peak in 2029,requiring249,900 and 376,000 full-time teachers and 125,300 childcare workers respectively under the two preschool teacher ratios,and then began to decline steadily.Compared with the future teacher supply,the adoption of a 15:1 preschool-teacher ratio standard for full-time teachers under the two schemes will cause oversupply around 2022,and if the preschool-teacher ratio is raised to 10:1,the oversupply of full-time teachers will be delayed.There will have a supply gap between childcare workers by 2027 and 2029 according to the 30:1 standard,after which there will be an oversupply.Therefore,under the steady downward trend of the number of births in the future,both the number of full-time teachers and childcare workers show an overall surplus trend,and the equipment standards need to be continuously improved.Third,the overall supply of kindergartens in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2035 in the future can basically meet the demand,which also shows that the current relevant policies on the conditions of preschool education in Shandong Province are very effective,and the future demand for preschool education kindergartens in Shandong is fully qualified.From the perspective of the construction area of the garden,under the basic standards,the construction area demand of the two options in 2022 and 2023 are not met,and the construction area demand after 2023 are met.However,under higher standards,the construction area demand of the two schemes will not be met until after 2025 and 2027 respectively,which previously showed a phenomenon of short supply.Therefore,under the condition of maintaining the number of parks,the construction area of the garden needs to be increased.Fourth,the investment in preschool education in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing year by year,the overall funding increased sixfold,and the per student education index also increased from 0.05 in 2010 to 0.09,but it is still far lower than the average of 0.2 in OECD countries.Under the per student education funding index of 0.09,the education funding demand of Shandong Province in 2022 and 2023 have not been met under the two plans,and there is a demand gap of 2.446-7.980 billion yuan,after which the education funding has shown a trend of oversupply,and the low and high schemes need to reduce the education funding investment by 19.87-15.788 billion yuan and 1.640-5.317 billion yuan respectively.Under the higher per student education funding index of 0.2,both schemes show a phenomenon of short supply from 2022 to 2035,and the low and high schemes need to increase by 272.02-53.306 billion yuan and 33.581-57.095 billion yuan respectively.According to the influence of the change of school-age population on the development of preschool education in Shandong Province,relevant departments should establish and improve the birth population statistics and education resource early warning system,and rationally adjust the distribution of preschool resources;Strengthen the construction of teaching staff and form a guarantee mechanism for sustainable,healthy and high-quality development;Expand the building area of the park to realize the effective use of educational resources under the low fertility level;We will increase funding for preschool education through multiple channels and promote the development of inclusive preschool education.