Forecast Of School-age Population And Demand Of Preschool Education Resources In Zhejiang Province In 2035

According to UNESCO,"Almost every aspect of educational development planning is related to population size,structure and distribution,we should take full account of demographic dynamics." The number of school-age population for preschool education will affect the demand for educational resources.If the planning work is not done well in advance,it is likely to produce problems such as waste or insufficiency of educational resources.It is important to forecast the size of preschool education school-age population.In this study,we mainly used literature research method,quantitative analysis method and policy analysis method.First of all,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the school-age population scale.And we use the 2010 census of Zhejiang Province as the base data,referring to the existing demographic statistics data and existing research,we set up three schemes of low,middle and high respectively.The study uses the Chinese population prediction software CPPS to forecast the school-age population of preschool education in Zhejiang Province from 2020 to 2035,and then analyzes the forecast results.Next,according to the number of school-age population,the demand of preschool education teacher resources,financial resources and material resources is predicted.In the process of predicting the demand of preschool education teacher resources and material resources in Zhejiang Province,the prediction standard is determined by analyzing the historical change trend of teacher resources and material resources in Zhejiang Province and combining with the national standard.In the process of predicting the funds of preschool education in the whole province,the index of funds per student of UNESCO is used as the forecasting index to calculate the funds input of preschool education in the whole province,and the index of funds per student is determined by international comparison.At the same time,the international comparison method is adopted to determine the proportion of financial preschool education funds in the regional GDP and calculate the financial investment in preschool education funds.The results show that in the next three years,the scale of preschool in the province’s kindergartens will continue to increase,and reach the peak in 2022,and then the number of preschool population will slowly decline.From 2020 to 2035,the demand of preschool education teacher resources will change greatly,and the contradiction between supply and demand of teacher resources will be prominent.Investment in preschool education is increasing,but the overall level is low.The gap of preschool education material resources is large,and the problem of "difficulty in entering kindergarten" is becoming more and more prominent.According to the challenges faced in the development of preschool education in Zhejiang,it is necessary to strengthen the construction of population monitoring system and promote the precise allocation of preschool education resources.Increase the investment of preschool education funds to alleviate the supply and demand of educational resources;Actively carry out the diversified kindergarten mode to meet the needs of school-age children;We will optimize the allocation mode of preschool education teachers,strive to solve the contradiction in the supply of teacher resources,and comprehensively improve the development level of preschool education in the province.