| The large income gap between urban and rural areas not only affects China’s reform and development process and the construction of a harmonious socialist society,but also leads to the weakness of consumption to drive economic growth.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the gap between urban and rural development and distribution is still very large.Based on this,research on the causes of urban-rural income gap and put forward suggestions to reduce urban-rural income gap based on the analysis results,which are of great significance to the comprehensive construction of a well-off society in China and the realization of urban and rural economy Recycling and solving the problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers have great practical significance.Chongqing is a typical urban-rural dual structure city,and the reasons for its disparity in urban-rural income are numerous and complex.This article analyzes Chongqing’s income gap in two dimensions and predicts the urban-rural income gap in Chongqing from 2019 to 2023.The purpose of the research is to have a more comprehensive understanding of the urban-rural income gap in Chongqing and its impact,and to provide reference opinions for reducing the urbanrural income gap in Chongqing.First,using the decomposability of the Thiel index,the Thiel index of urban and rural areas,and the Thiel index of four large areas based on geographical location were measured.It is found that the rural area is higher than the urban area’s Theil Index,and the four major areas are sorted according to the Theil index from northeast Chongqing area> southeast Chongqing area> west western area> main city area.In the two dimensions,the regional differences are large,indicating that the income gap in Chongqing mainly comes from the development imbalance between urban and rural development and the four major areas.Secondly,ten indicators affecting the income gap between urban and rural areas were selected: economic development level,employment structure,average price of commercial housing,urbanization rate,dual contrast coefficient,dual contrast coefficient,fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture,financial development efficiency,financial development The level of scale and years of education per capita.The principal component analysis was used to reduce the dimensions of these 10 indicators,and finally the one indicator of fiscal support ratio were eliminated and two principal components were selected.Then,according to the principal component selected by the principal component analysis as the independent variable and the rural-urban income difference as the dependent variable,the multiple linear regression model was established and the ruralurban income difference from 2002 to 2018 was predicted.According to the urban-rural income difference from 2002 to 2015,the time series model was fitted,and the predicted value of 2016-2018 was fitted according to the model.By comparing the fitting error between the predicted value and the real value of the model,it is concluded that the fitting effect of the time series model is better.According to the predicted urbanrural income gap of 2019-2023 fitted by the time series model,it is found that the urbanrural income gap will continue to expand in the next five years.Finally,the paper summarizes and analyzes the previous research results,and puts forward some Suggestions to reduce the urban-rural income gap in Chongqing for reference. |
