Research On The Impact Of High-end Export Trade On Employment

After years of development,China is still at the middle and low end of the global value chain,and its export trade is still dominated by low-end products with low added value.With the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the future,China needs to gradually move from the middle and low-end position of the global value chain to the high-end.China’s export trade products will also gradually change to the high-end products with high added value.Therefore,the high-end export trade is the general trend and direction of China’s foreign trade.However,as China’s export trade gradually moves towards high-end,it may have an important impact on employment.Because the traditional low-value-added export trade is dominated by labor-intensive industries and has a strong pull on employment,while the high-value-added export trade relies more on capital-intensive industries and has a weak pull on employment.With the change of trade structure,China may face greater employment pressure.Especially after China’s economy entered the new normal,the downward pressure of China’s economy has been increasing,and stable employment has become the top priority.How to balance the relationship between "high-end export trade" and "stable employment" brought by the increase of high-end products exports has become an important issue that the government urgently needs to solve.This paper holds that the increase of export of high-end products means the high-end production structure of domestic export trade.From the perspective of industrial structure transformation alone,the capital deepening brought about by the increase of export of high-end products may have some adverse effects on employment and form a certain "substitution effect" on employment of traditional labor-intensive industries,which tends to reduce employment.But if we stand in the perspective of the whole industrial chain,we can find that the industrial structure transformation will also bring the extension of the industrial chain.The increase of high-end product exports can further derive the matching high-end parts production,high-end capital product production and other industrial sectors.The development of derivative industry can absorb employment,thus producing a certain employment "compensation effect".Under the combined effect of the two effects,the increase of high-end product exports may not be weaker than that of low-end product exports.Therefore,with the gradual development of China’s export trade structure towardshigh-end,that is,the export of high-end products increases gradually,and the export of low-end products decreases gradually.The high-end export trade structure may not have a greater adverse impact on China’s employment.Based on this,this paper makes a detailed analysis of the impact of high-end product export growth on China’s employment from the two levels of quantitative empirical analysis and theoretical model construction.In the part of quantitative empirical analysis,this paper constructs a multivariable VAR model to analyze the characteristic facts of the impact of high-end product export growth on employment.On the basis of quantitative empirical analysis,this paper further constructs a multi-sectoral dynamic general equilibrium model including representative household sector,high-end product export production sector,low-end product export production sector,capital product production sector and final product production sector.After the construction of the theoretical model,the corresponding numerical simulation analysis is carried out.Through empirical analysis and theoretical analysis,this paper finds that empirical analysis weakens the pulling force of high-end product exports on China’s employment.This is because China has not yet developed a complete industrial system,and the industrial chain is not complete enough to give full play to the "compensation effect" of high-end product exports on employment.If China can in the future industrial transformation and upgrading,it will be able to make full use of the "compensation effect" of high-end product exports on employment.If we can continuously develop the derivative industry sector that matches the export of high-end products and make full use of the "compensation effect" of high-end products on employment,then we need not worry excessively about the adverse effects of high-end products’ export growth and low-end products’ export decline on employment caused by high-end trade structure,and the government can effectively balance the "high-end export trade" and "high-end export trade".The relationship between "stable employment".This paper consists of five parts.The first part is the introduction,introducing the research background,research significance and research methods of this paper;the second part is the literature review,introducing the research status of relevant fields at home and abroad,and commenting on the existing literature research;the third part is the empirical analysis of econometrics,mainly combing the current situation of China’s export trade structure in recent years,as well as the export of high-end products.The fourth part is the main theoretical model of this paper.In this part,the corresponding dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed,and the optimal behavior selection of each actor is analyzed.On this basis,the parameters involved in the model are calibrated and simulated.The fifth part is the main conclusions and policy recommendations based on empirical econometric analysis and theoretical model construction.