| China’s real estate industry is closely linked with the financial industry.In the process of development,sales and circulation of real estate market,it is necessary to conduct fundraising and financing activities through credit channels and a variety of financial instruments.At present,the overall financing channel of China’s real estate industry is still relatively single,mainly through commercial bank loans to maintain capital flow and stability.The high rate of return brought by the prosperity of the real estate market will make banks invest a lot of money into the real estate industry,and the credit and leverage will increase sharply,and the leverage level in the economy will continue to increase,which will further stimulate the overheated investment in the real estate industry.At present,China’s real estate enterprises have appeared the situation of overheated investment and high leverage.Once the financing subject in the real estate market can not resolve the market risk,the risk will be transmitted to the financial institutions.There are adverse fluctuations in housing prices,the bursting of the real estate bubble,the risk of bank credit default,and the financial institutions’ risk of bad debts.The deterioration of the balance sheet and the sharp fall in real estate prices reinforce each other and jeopardize the stability of the financial system.Maintaining the stability of the real estate financial system and preventing the occurrence of real estate financial risks are of great significance to the stability of China’s financial system and the smooth operation of the national economy.Nowadays,China’s real estate market has appeared the phenomenon of high housing prices and high housing vacancy.China’s population structure changes rapidly,and the aging problem is becoming increasingly serious.However,the speed of economic development fails to adapt to the negative impact of population aging.The change of population structure is bound to have an impact on the supply and demand sides of the real estate market,and aggravate the housing vacancy problem in China,It causes the negative fluctuation of real estate price and increases the possibility of real estate financial risk.High housing vacancy will lead to the serious imbalance of supply and demand structure of the real estate market,affect the stability of the real estate market,and then bring adverse impact on the real estate finance.The real estate price bubble is the main inducing factor of real estate financial risks.The sharp decline of real estate sales and the sharp fall of real estate prices are the fuse of real estate financial risks.Based on the above background,this paper hopes to explore the impact of population aging on the financial risk of real estate,and the role of housing vacancy in the impact of population aging on real estate financial risk,and to prevent and prepare for the negative impact of the deepening of population aging on the real estate market,and promote the long-term and stable development of the real estate market.Based on the relevant literatures at home and abroad on the relationship between population aging,housing vacancy and real estate financial risks,the hypothesis is put forward under the support of demographic transition theory,family life cycle theory,asset bubble theory and asset ablation hypothesis.From the perspective of intermediary effect of housing vacancy,this paper discusses the impact of population aging on real estate financial risk.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2018,the overall effect model and intermediary effect model are constructed to verify the hypothesis.Considering that the real estate financial risk is a dynamic cumulative process,there may be lag effect.Therefore,this paper uses the System GMM method to construct the model,and verifies the existence of intermediary effect by stepwise test regression coefficient,Sobel test and Bootstrap test.Finally,the conclusion is drawn,and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward,and the shortcomings of this study are also reflected.In the existing literature on the impact of population structure on the real estate market,most of them focus on the impact of population aging on real estate prices and real estate demand.Based on relevant theories and from the perspective of housing vacancy intermediary effect,this paper puts forward the hypothesis of the impact of population aging on real estate financial risk from the perspective of housing vacancy intermediary effect.The topics are novel and broaden the research perspective.Previous studies generally focus on the impact of population aging on housing vacancy and the single impact path of housing vacancy on real estate financial risk.This paper enriches the research form.It not only studies the direct impact of population aging on real estate financial risk,but also constructs a mediating effect model to study the mediating role of housing vacancy in the relationship between them It has enriched the research in this field.This paper also has the following deficiencies:(1)In the research and analysis of housing vacancy caused by population aging,the influence of urbanization and the change of population spatial structure(such as population migration)is not taken into account,and the influence of the trend of small family size increasing housing demand in the future is also ignored to a certain extent;(2)Considering the actual situation of China,the real estate industry in China has been improved The market is closely related to the present situation of land finance in China.This paper focuses on the real estate economy and ignores the real estate.One of the shortcomings of this paper is that the importance of land in the real estate economy is not fully considered;(3)In this paper,the study of real estate financial risk mainly considers the possibility of the occurrence of systemic financial risk caused by the credit risk of real estate,and fails to build a complete evaluation system of real estate financial risk including various indicators.In the future research,we need to improve the construction of real estate financial risk index system. |
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