The Impact Of Population Aging On China's Housing Vacancy And Its Regional Differences

With the development of New China,the economic level is eye-catching in the world,and people's lives and consumption are getting better and better.With the advancement of medical and health standards,the age structure of China's population has gradually begun to show aging characteristics.As an irreversible social trend,population aging also brings a series of influences to social and economic development.As a national pillar industry,the real estate industry will inevitably be affected by the aging population structure.Under the background of the transformation of China's population age structure,the Chinese population has gradually entered the "Lewis turning point",and the demographic dividend has gradually shifted to the population debt,which has an impact on the supply and demand of the real estate market,and ultimately affects the level of housing vacancy.China's housing vacancy has already begun to appear in around 2004.After 2010,the growth rate of vacancy rate has increased significantly,which has a certain impact on the resource allocation and operation order of the housing market.Against the background that China's population is aging and housing vacancy is not optimistic,studying the relationship between population aging and housing vacancies can prevent the adverse effects of demographic changes on the housing market and promote the long-term development of the healthy and stable real estate market.Based on life cycle theory,intergenerational overlap model,demographic dividend theory and real estate market supply and demand theory,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population aging on China's housing vacancy,and combines China's population aging and housing vacancy development status to build a suitable The empirical model draws corresponding conclusions,and further proposes countermeasures on how to regulate the development of the real estate market under the trend of aging.The empirical part of this paper makes use of the 30 provincial-level panel data of 26 provinces(excluding Tibet)and 4 autonomous regions in China from 2004 to 2016 to conduct a national analysis and regional analysis of housing vacancy in China's population aging.According to the dual analysis of theory and evidence,it shows that the intensification of China's population aging will expand the scope of housing vacancy,and the increasing population aging trend will increase the vacancy rate of the housing incremental market.In response to this result,in order to maintain the healthy development of China's housing market,housing should adopt housing supply and demand adjustment measures,paying attention to the improvement and development of old-age real estate.