The Impact Of Floating Population On Urban Housing Prices

The issue of people’s livelihood is a problem that China must face today.The housing problem is one of the most difficult and most urgent problems to be solved.Since the reform of the housing system in 1998,the real estate market has developed rapidly and has gradually become the pillar industry of China’s economic development.However,in this process,the significant difference in housing prices,the pressure of house inventory,and the rapid rise in housing prices have made many people unable to afford high amounts housing prices,although the state and local governments have issued a series of housing price control policies,housing prices have been adjusted,but the implementation of the policy is not satisfactory,housing prices are still overheated.Therefore,effective control of urban housing prices is not only related to the stability and harmony of society,but also plays an important role in the development of the national economy.The formation of housing prices is closely related to the supply and demand of the housing market.The supply of housing is mainly determined by the government and real estate developers,and the demand for housing is provided by people.By the end of 2017,the number of floating population in China was 244 million.In addition to being affected by the needs of local residents,house prices are also affected by the demands of the floating population.At the same time,the internal demographic structure of the floating population is also changing.For example,changes in the educational level,income levels,and aging populations will also affect the housing demands of the floating groups in a subtle way,which in turn will have an impact on housing prices.The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of floating population on urban housing prices,with a view to providing theoretical and practical basis for safeguarding people’’s livelihood,formulating population policies and stabilizing the real estate market.This paper first analyzes the current situation of China’s housing price changes and regional housing price differences in the past 20 years,and then analyzes the size and structural changes of China’s floating population.Next,this paper takes 87 cities as the research object,and uses the panel data model to study the impact of the size and structure of the floating population on housing prices from 2011 to 2015 at the national level and the regional level.According to the relevant research of demography,this paper divides the population structure into three sub-structures:natural structure,social economic structure and regional structure.In the selection of sub-structure indicators,for the natural structure of population,this paper selects the gender ratio of floating population and the proportion of floating population aged 25 to 40 in the total floating population.For the economic and social structure of population,this paper selects the floating population with higher education.The proportion of the total floating population and the floating population with a monthly income of more than 5,000 yuan in the total floating population;for the regional structure,this paper selects the proportion of the cross-provincial floating population in the total floating population.In addition,the paper also selected six control variables to ensure the reliability of the empirical results.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from three aspects:real estate policy,floating population policy and regional economic policy.Through research,this paper draws the following four conclusions:(1)The overall national housing prices are increasing year by year,and the spatial distribution shows the characteristics of"East higher than West","East faster than "West”and "East more crowded than West".(2)The number of floating population has increased,the growth rate has slowed down,the downward trend has begun to appear,the inter-provincial flow has decreased,and the population structure has been optimized.(3)The size and structure of the floating population will affect the city’s housing prices to a certain extent.Specifically,the more migrants in the city,the more migrants aged 25-40,the more male migrants,the more highly educated migrants,the more high-income migrants,and the inter-provincial flows.The more floating population,the higher the city’s housing prices.In terms of regions,housing prices in the eastern region are affected by the size of the floating population and population structure;housing prices in the central region are mainly affected by the demographic structure of the floating population;housing prices in the western region are mainly affected by the size of the floating population.(4)Non-population factors such as regional per capita GDP,real estate investment,land price and wages of employees have different degrees of impact on housing prices,and there are regional differences.