| As China completes the demographic transition from the traditional “high-high-low” to the modern “low-low-low” population reproduction type,the fertility rate has dropped significantly,the mortality rate has steadily decreased.At the same time,people’s living standards are improving,medical technology is superb,and the life expectancy is increasing year by year.China is entering an aging society at a rapid rate.Since 2016,China has formally implemented a comprehensive two-child policy to encourage childbirth and promote population growth.The birth rate has gradually recovered,forming a situation where both "decreasing birth" and "aging" coexist.The burden of social support has increased significantly,and the demographic dividend is disappearing.The real estate industry is listed as a pillar industry of China’s economic development,which can effectively drive the development of related industries.Fluctuations in housing prices will directly affect the operation of the national economy.Moreover,the housing problem has always been the people’s livelihood issue that people are most concerned about.Housing expenditure accounts for a relatively large part of people’s lifetime consumption,so fluctuations in housing prices will directly affect the living standards of residents.As the main body of housing purchase,the population directly affects the housing demand,and thus causes fluctuations in housing prices by affecting the housing supply-demand balance.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence mechanism of the population age structure on housing prices.Starting from a new idea,this study uses panel data from 31 provincial in China from 1999 to 2018,constructs linear and non-linear models to study the correlation between population age structure and housing price changes.One is to add square of child dependency ratio and square of elderly dependency ratio in the linear model,to explore the interaction mechanism between the population age structure and housing prices in depth.And the second is to construct a threshold panel model to analyze the adjustment effect of income level on the impact of population age structure on housing prices.The empirical results show that: at the national level,child dependency ratio is negatively correlated with housing prices,and presents a "U-shaped" trend;elderly dependency ratio is positively correlated with housing prices,and presents an "inverted U-shaped" trend.And at different levels of income,population age structure affects housing prices in different directions and degrees.As the income level rises,it will exacerbate the negative impact of decreasing birth on housing prices,while easing the negative effect of aging on housing prices.Moreover,there are regional differences in the impact of population age structure on housing prices.The coefficient of child dependency ratio is negative in developed and underdeveloped areas,and the square term is significantly positive,while the coefficient in sub-developed areas is positive,and the square term is not significant.The elderly dependency ratio and its square term have no significant effect in developed regions.The coefficient of elderly dependency ratio is negative and the square term is positive in sub-developed regions,while the opposite is true in less developed regions,the coefficient of elderly dependency ratio is positive and the square term is negative.Based on theoretical and empirical analysis,this article finally proposes corresponding policy suggestions.The increase in housing prices promoted by the deepening aging is unsustainable.In order to avoid the downside risks of future housing prices,the government should take measures as soon as possible to fully encourage childbirth and increase population growth momentum of.In addition,the reform of the household registration system,regional talent introduction policies,monetary policies and real estate policies will effectively regulate the housing market and build a long-term mechanism. |
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