A Study On The Influence Of Population Age Structure On The Price Of Commercial Housing In Anhui Province

The 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed in its report that it is necessary to "implement a national strategy to actively respond to population aging,develop elderly care services and the elderly care industry,optimize services for elderly people who are alone or have lost their spouses,and strive to provide basic elderly care services to all elderly people." With the acceleration of the aging population and the decline in the birth rate,the imbalanced age structure of the population has not yet been reversed despite efforts.As the main demand for the housing market,changes in the age structure of the population will have profound impacts on the housing market,housing prices,housing demand,and so on.Since China began market-oriented reform in the housing market in 1998,the real estate industry has rapidly developed over the past twenty years and has gradually become a pillar industry.Meanwhile,housing prices have also risen rapidly.The sustained increase in housing prices will affect residents’ sense of well-being,and fluctuations in housing prices will also affect the national economy.Therefore,based on the age structure of the population and changes in the housing market,studying the influence mechanism of the age structure of the population on the prices of commodity housing will help optimize the age structure of the population,actively respond to population aging and declining birth rates,and promote the sound development of commodity housing prices.This paper takes the relationship between population age structure and housing price as the research background,selects panel data of 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2020 as the sample source,builds a multiple linear regression equation model of population age structure to the price of commercial housing in Anhui Province,and divides these 16 prefecture level cities into economically developed regions,economically underdeveloped regions and economically developing regions according to the level of economic development,and divides them into northern Anhui,central Anhui Explore the heterogeneity analysis of population age structure on commodity housing prices in the southern Anhui region.The empirical results indicate that,firstly,overall,the aging population in Anhui Province continues to worsen,gradually entering a deep aging society,and the phenomenon of fewer children is also gradually worsening.Secondly,the impact of population age structure on commodity housing prices is influenced by regional economic development levels and geographical location factors.The impact of population age structure on commodity housing prices under different economic development levels and geographical locations shows significant regional differences.Thirdly,the impact of child rearing ratio on commodity housing prices is beginning to emerge,and the phenomenon of fewer children is severe in some regions.Overall,there is a "U-shaped" nonlinear relationship between children’s dependency ratio and commodity housing prices.Fourthly,due to the differences in economic development and population policies in different regions,there are significant regional differences in the impact of household population structure,GDP growth rate,per capita disposable income,and investment in commodity housing on commodity housing prices.Based on empirical results,advocating for a proactive response to aging should establish a positive outlook on aging and the concept of healthy aging;Actively responding to the aging population should promote the high-quality development of the elderly care industry in the elderly care industry;We will implement the population and fertility policy and promote the steady rise of the birth rate to cope with the rapid population reduction;Reasonably implement real estate regulation policies and formulate residential market regulation policies tailored to local conditions;Timely launch population policies that conform to the characteristics of the region’s population,and propose reasonable suggestions from the perspective of promoting the construction of new urbanization.