Optimization Of Human Capital And Resolution Of Industrial Overcapacity In China

Since the 1990 s,the problem of overcapacity has been running through the process of China’s economic system reform.Whether it is from the "three-stage superposition" to the "new normal" of economy,or the current "supply side structural reform",the resolution of overcapacity has been regarded as an important task of economic system reform.Overcapacity is like the sword of Damocles standing on China’s economic development.Whether it is short-term or long-term,overcapacity will bring a series of economic and social problems,such as intensified economic fluctuations,vicious market competition,imbalance of resource allocation,and rising financial risks.It should be pointed out that China’s overcapacity has always been expanding with the growth of social demand,which is mainly caused by the disconnection and imbalance of supply and demand structure.Its manifestations are as follows: first,the sustained growth of social consumption capacity does not play a role in digesting excess capacity;second,there is a mismatch between enterprise product structure and social demand structure,that is,the product supply on the supply side cannot meet the market demand on the consumer side.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that the main social contradictions in the new era have been transformed into the contradiction between the people’s growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development.This shows that social production and market demand have changed from simple quantity demand to quality demand,and "de capacity" is the key way to achieve this important transformation.First of all,this paper analyzes the mechanism of human capital optimization and overcapacity resolution from two perspectives of human capital rationalization and human capital upgrading,which covers the research content of supply and demand.In terms of the rationalization of human capital,this paper holds that the rationalization of human capital can promote demand expansion and supply optimization by improving the share of labor income and resource allocation efficiency,and comprehensively promote the solution of overcapacity under the joint effect of industrial structure upgrading,human capital upgrading and technological progress upgrading.From the perspective of new human capital theory,this paper divides the impact of human capital on overcapacity into three aspects: knowledge spillover effect,health induced effect and technological innovation effect.On the one hand,the high level of human capital can stimulate effective demand by means of education investment,economic growth and clean production;on the other hand,it can optimize the output structure through structural optimization,capital replacement and innovation upgrading,so as to promote the matching of supply and demand and resolve overcapacity.Secondly,based on the theoretical mechanism of human capital rationalization and overcapacity resolution,this paper empirically tests the effect of human capital rationalization on overcapacity by using dynamic panel model.It is found that the rationalization of human capital can release the surplus labor factors,and then improve the labor income share and resource allocation efficiency,which is conducive to the resolution of industrial overcapacity,but it presents an "inverted U" influence path.And it should be pointed out that the inefficient industrial structure upgrading and biased technological progress upgrading inhibit the effect of human capital rationalization on industrial overcapacity,while the upgrading of human capital promotes the resolving effect of human capital rationalization on industrial overcapacity,and effectively improves the adverse impact of human capital allocation on resolving industrial overcapacity.Through further theoretical analysis,this paper uses threshold model and dynamic panel model to test the effect of human capital rationalization on overcapacity under different economic development levels.It is found that there are significant differences between the rational allocation of human capital and the resolution of overcapacity under different economic development levels,which also verifies the "inverted U" path of human capital rationalization to resolve overcapacity.Specifically speaking,for the regions that have not crossed the threshold of economic development,the rationalization of human capital has a positive direct effect on the utilization rate of industrial capacity,but the inefficient industrial structure change and biased technological progress are still the restricting factors for human capital to resolve industrial overcapacity.The reason is that in the stage of economic development,the scale expansion of service industry is helpful to the modernization of agriculture and industry and to resolve the industrial overcapacity.However,the strong employment capacity of service industry leads to the mismatch of human capital.Finally,based on the provincial panel data of China from 2002 to 2016,taking the knowledge spillover effect,health induced effect and technological innovation effect of human capital on overcapacity as the theoretical framework,this paper uses the improved entropy weight method to measure the human capital height index,and uses the dynamic spatial panel model to empirically test the human capital height from the national and regional levels The solution effect of overcapacity.The results of the national level show that promoting the high level of human capital is conducive to the resolution of industrial overcapacity,and the increase of investment in knowledge human capital and technical human capital is also conducive to resolving industrial overcapacity,while the upgrading of healthy human capital is not conducive to the solution of industrial overcapacity,which is mainly attributed to the mismatch effect of human capital.It should be pointed out that due to the increasingly fierce competition for talents among regions,the upgrading of human capital in the surrounding areas is not conducive to the resolution of industrial overcapacity in this region.The results at the regional level show that the effect of human capital upgrading on the resolution of industrial overcapacity generally presents a step-by-step trend from the east to the Midwest,which may be due to the low level of human capital and the slow industrialization process in the central and western regions.