Research On The Impact Of Fertility Policy Reform On The Income And Expenditure Of Social Pension Insurance Fund

The accelerated aging process has posed a severe test on the carrying capacity of China’s pension fund.In order to make the population sustainable,China has repeatedly adjusted its fertility policy to adapt to the continuous changes in socio-economic and demographic development.The paper focuses on how and to what extent the changes in fertility policy will affect pension income and expenditure.Through Actuarial theory of social endowment insurance,theories of population dividend,life-cycle consumption and welfare economics,the link between fertility policy and social pension funds is sorted out and analyzed,and it is found that fertility policy can achieve a dynamic equilibrium of pension income and expenditure with the effect of wealth distribution in line with life-cycle consumption by realizing population dividend.On this basis,this paper establishes a population projection and pension actuarial model,takes the population data from 2001 to 2020 as the sample,measures the population development trend under three fertility policies and four total fertility rates from 2020 to 2070,uses the population projection results as the basis for calculating the number of pension contributions and recipients,and sets the time-varying pension coverage rate,inflation rate,wage growth rate and contribution share to measure pension income and expenditure in 2020-2070,and conclude that(1)relaxing the fertility policy can reduce the pressure on pension income and expenditure in the future,as shown by the fact that when the total fertility rate increases,the difference between pension income and expenditure in 2070 will become smaller,and in When the total fertility rate reaches 2.1,the difference between pension income and expenditure starts to decrease after 2035 and keeps decreasing in the projected time frame;(2)the impact of fertility policy on pension income and expenditure decreases with time,and this paper uses the change in the difference between total pension income and expenditure to reflect the impact of fertility policy,with the total fertility rate at 1.3,1.6 and 1.8,the difference between pension income and expenditure grows over the next 50 years,but the higher the fertility level,the slower the difference grows,and this suppressive effect gradually increases over time,for example,under the condition of 1.8 total fertility rate,the growth rate of pension income and expenditure difference per decade in 2040-2050 is 51.61%,28.3% and The gap between the growth rates becomes larger,which indicates that the fertility policy has a stronger inhibiting effect on the growth of the pension income and expenditure gap;(3)the total fertility rate of2.1 can achieve the dynamic balance of pension income and expenditure in the future,under the fertility rate of 2.1,the total pension income and expenditure gap will start to decrease after 2035 and keep a decreasing trend,if the pension income and expenditure gap can be gradually reduced.Then,without changing the pension payment system,the gap between income and expenditure may become zero and finally achieve the dynamic balance of pension income and expenditure;(4)the fertility policy will not be able to play its full role in the process of influencing pension income and expenditure due to the constraints of factors such as the participation rate.