A Research On The Impact Of Demographics On Innovation

With the development of global population aging trend,China has gradually entered an aging society,the proportion of young population in the total labor force is declining,and the innovation activities are bound to be affected.In order to study the impact of demographics on innovation,this paper uses 1990 and 2000 National Census micro data,1990-2014 China patent database,1990-2014 CSMAR database and 1998-2013 China industrial enterprise database to construct demographics change with the proportion of young labor force predicted by historical birth date,especially the impact of the change of young labor force on regional and enterprise innovation activities.This paper constructs the panel data of prefecture level cities from 1990 to 2014 and the panel data of enterprises from 1998 to 2013,and studies the influence of the heterogeneity of patent types,regional differences and enterprise types on the demographics and innovation relationship from the perspectives of prefecture level cities and enterprises.In terms of mechanism,this paper also uses the Jinshi of Ming and Qing Dynasties to measure the regional Confucian culture,and explores whether the demographics of population has an impact on innovation activities through cultural factors.In addition,this paper also analyzes the possibility of labor supply channel,consumer channel and financing channel of the impact of demographic change on innovation through leverage ratio and differentiation of import and export enterprises.Through the analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions: 1.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between demographics and innovation.The increase of the proportion of young labor force has a significant role in promoting the quantity and quality of innovation output,which is robust at the regional level and enterprise level.2.The increasing proportion of young labor force has less impact on invention patents,and more obvious impact on utility model patents and design patents.3.There are regional heterogeneity and enterprise heterogeneity in the impact of the change of demographics on innovation.The economically developed eastern region can enhance the role of young labor force in promoting innovation,while the central region has no significant impact on the change of demographics and innovation,while the western region significantly inhibits the impact of the change of young labor force proportion on innovation.The impact of demographics change on innovation of non-state-owned enterprises is more obvious than that of state-owned enterprises.4.Confucian culture may inhibit the impact of population structure on innovation,while financing channels and consumer demand channels are not established.Enterprises in the young labor market are more likely to promote innovation by employing young labor.Based on the above research results,this paper also puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for innovation development.The main contributions are as follows: 1.This paper does not use the actual labor force to measure the demographics,but estimates the current population structure by the historical birth date of the population,which can better avoid the endogenous problem between the population structure change and innovation.2.From the perspective of prefecture level cities and enterprises,this paper studies the heterogeneity of the relationship between demographics and innovation in terms of patent types,regional differences and enterprise types;3.This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population structure change on innovation from cultural factors,labor supply channels,consumer channels and financing channels,which can provide a new perspective and research reference for the research of demographics and innovation.