Empirical And Mechanism Research On The Influence Of Technological Progress On Employment In China

Under the new development pattern of "dual cycle",technological innovation is an important strategic development in China.In particular,the rapid emergence of new forms of technological progress such as artificial intelligence has greatly promoted the development of technological and economic growth.However,the rapid development of technology has also triggered social concerns about "machine substitution".On the one hand,large-scale investment in advanced machinery and equipment containing advance technology can help companies increase productivity,expand production scale,and improve market competitiveness;on the other hand,it also brings potential unemployment risks to a large number of labor which engaged in routine operations.At the same time,Chinese labor market is experiencing the coexistence of recruitment difficulties and employment difficulties,as well as a shortage of total labor supply.Especially affected by the Covid-19 in early 2020,the labor market situation is still very severe.Then,the question that follows is,what is the mechanism of technological progress on employment demand? How technological progress would affect the demand of employment?In addition,as a concomitant phenomenon of rapid technological development,the labor market in the United States and many European countries has shown a "polarization" feature of high and low skill labor on both sides being increasing and middle skill labor on the middle being decreasing,and the demand for labor skills has clearly differentiated.As the largest developing country,in order to improve international competitiveness,China will inevitably seize the opportunity in the new round of technological revolution represented by artificial intelligence and accelerate the integration of technology and industry.Then,it is worth thinking about the mechanism of technological progress on the employment structure of the labor force?Will the "polarization" phenomenon similar to those in European and American countries appear in Chinese labor market under the influence of technological progress? Let us further consider whether there are differences in the employment structure of the labor force in different regions of our country in the context of uneven regional development in China?In response to the above problems,I use a method of combination of theory and empirical to carry out a series of studies on the influence of technological progress on employment demand and employment structure.First,I construct a task-based production function model,theoretically analyze the influence mechanism of technological progress on employment demand,and I construct a technological progress bias index,which is introduced as a key explanatory variable into the econometric model,combining with the panel data 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2017 empirically analyze the influence of technological advancement bias on employment demand,and analyze whether the industrial structure has an intermediary effect between technological progress bias and employment demand.Then,the demand for low,medium,and high-skilled labor is introduced into the task-based production function model to theoretically analyze the influence mechanism of technological progress on employment structure,and combine the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2017,From the perspective of overall and regional heterogeneity,I empirical analysis of the influence of technological progress on the employment structure.The research results show that Chinese current technological progress is biased towards capital,which has a negative impact on overall employment demand.The industrial structure has a significant mediating effect between technological influence bias and employment demand.Moreover,Chinese current labor market as a whole presents a "polarization" trend similar to European and American countries;further from the perspective of regional heterogeneity,technological progress has promoted a "polarization" trend in the employment structure in North and Northeast in China,but labor market in East,Central South,Southwest and Northwest in China display different degrees of employment "upgrading" trends.