A Study On The Annual Increment Of Smog In Various Provinces And Cities In China

This master's thesis mainly introduces the spatial heterogeneity effect of annual increment of haze pollution in different cities of China under the heterogeneous spatial panel lag model.Based on the first-order difference data of PM2.5 concentration in Chinese cities from 1999 to 2016 and the three-year moving average data of four influencing factors(population density,per capita GDP,proportion of secondary industry and road pavement rate)in different cities from 1999 to 2016,considering the fact that each city has different influence on other cities,the paper puts forward a theoretical explanation of heterogeneous spatial panel model.In the case analysis,through Moran index test,LM Test and other methods,this paper finally chooses the heterogeneous spatial panel lag model to fit and explain the parameters.The research of this paper shows that:the PM2.5 concentration changes in China's provinces have a positive impact on other cities in general,but some provinces have a negative impact.In terms of the impact,some provinces have a greater positive impact,such as Beijing.China can pay attention to these cities in the process of haze control to achieve the effect of point to area.Some provinces have a small impact,such as Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai and other regions have more interaction with sea air.China needs to pay more attention to the impact of surrounding sea areas on the mainland in the process of haze control.Among the four key factors,population density,per capita GDP,and the proportion of secondary industry in GDP have a positive impact on the change of PM2.5 annual average concentration of each city,while the road pavement rate has a positive impact on the PM2.5 annual average concentration of each city The change has a negative effectIn the comparison of the prediction results of heterogeneous spatial panel lag model and homogeneous spatial panel lag model,we found that the heterogeneous spatial panel lag model is more suitable for AIC,BIC,AMAE and AMSE.According to the actual data,two models of large sample N and small period T are simulated.The results show that the MLE performs well.Then this paper makes policy recommendations on haze pollution in Chinese cities.In order to promote the haze control process in Chinese cities,it is necessary to coordinate the national arrangement and regulation in policy,and make full use of the linkage between cities to carry out haze control actions.At the same time,it is necessary to focus on the provinces with high influence,and use this feature to increase the local haze control efforts.It will bring a strong driving role to the haze control actions of other cities.For cities with large population density,it is necessary to make full use of the agglomeration effect.We can carry out certain measures such as motor vehicle flow restriction,reasonable allocation of resources,sharing of pollution control and emission reduction facilities.We can continue to advocate sustainable development,such as advocating "development" and "governance" simultaneously,and providing certain advantages for innovative enterprises in terms of policies.We should formulate and implement effective green industry supporting policies,and reasonably guide the upgrading of industrial structure,and accelerate the realization of the era of "post industry".