Research On Quantitative HAZOP Risk Analysis Method Based On Yellow Phosphorus Production

Hazard and Operability Analysis is a qualitative risk analysis method based on system engineering,which is used to identify the risks existing in the process and find the measures to reduce the risks.With the production process of yellow phosphorus becoming larger and more intelligent,the traditional HAZOP method has been unable to meet the needs of safety production.In this paper,a quantitative HAZOP risk analysis method is adopted,which not only quantifies the deviation and obtains the safe fluctuation range of the deviation,but also obtains the risk grade of the process,the risk transformation trend,the index that has great influence on the risk of the process and takes control measures.A quantitative risk analysis method of yellow phosphorus production HAZOPprocess simulation was proposed.The simulation process of yellow phosphorus production process was established by using Aspen Plus software.Quantitative deviations in traditional HAZOP evaluation results were quantified.Sensitivity analysis module was used to analyze the influence of deviations of different quantization degrees on yellow phosphorus production process,to obtain the safe fluctuation range of deviations,and to correct the evaluation results of traditional HAZOP method.A theoretical risk analysis method of HAZOP-set pair analysis for yellow phosphorus production was proposed.The evaluation index system of yellow phosphorus production process was established based on the causes of deviation in traditional HAZOP evaluation results.Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight method were used to calculate the combined weight of evaluation indexes.Invite experts to rate the evaluation indicators according to the established risk analysis criteria;A set pair was formed between the risk level of evaluation index rated by experts and the risk level of yellow phosphorus production process.The total correlation degree of yellow phosphorus production process was calculated,and then the risk level of yellow phosphorus production process was determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree.The set pair potential of the evaluation index and the yellow phosphorus production process was calculated,and the risk transformation trend of the yellow phosphorus production process was determined according to the set pair potential level,so as to put forward the control measures for the factors that have greater impact on the safety risk.The HAZOP process simulation quantitative risk analysis method was applied to the phosphorus production process of electric furnace and the condensation process of phosphorus furnace gas in yellow phosphorus production process,and the safety fluctuation range of deviation was obtained,which corrected the evaluation results of traditional HAZOP.The HAZOP-set pair analysis theory risk analysis method was applied to the four processes of yellow phosphorus production process,and the risk grade and risk transformation trend of the four processes were obtained,and the control measures for the evaluation indexes of the four processes with greater risk influence were put forward.The practice has proved that the quantitative HAZOP risk analysis method can not only solve the unreliability of traditional HAZOP assessment results of yellow phosphorus production process,but also determine the risk level of the process,the risk transformation trend and the key risk index of the process,so as to provide a basis for the production operation of personnel and the risk management of enterprises.