| With the development of social economy,the urban population is exploding,and residents' travel needs are becoming more and more diversified.Providing accurate transportation services for urban residents has become an important theme for urban managers.At present,there is a certain degree of mismatch between urban traffic demand and traffic rationing,resulting in inconvenience,high cost and long distance for residents to travel.At the same time,China's aging population is becoming more and more serious,and the transportation problem of the elderly is becoming increasingly prominent.How to meet the travel needs of the elderly group has become an urgent problem to be solved.Understanding the travel characteristics and travel choice behavior of the elderly groups is helpful to provide accurate transportation services for the elderly,and has a strong practical significance for solving the travel problems of the elderly.Based on the survey data of residents' travel in Jinan,the residents' groups are divided into the elderly group and the non-elderly group,and the travel characteristics and traffic mode choice behavior of the elderly group are studied,with the non-elderly group as a comparative analysis.Due to the influence of urban structure and traffic supply,the travel characteristics of urban residents have certain regularity.Mastering the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban residents' travel can provide scientific guidance for urban infrastructure construction and urban road planning.This thesis studies residents' travel under the background of aging from the aspects of mining the temporal and spatial characteristics of residents' travel,residents' travel choice behavior and influencing factors,aiming at exploring residents' travel rules,finding out the difference of travel characteristics between elderly and non-elderly groups,and deeply understanding the potential role of influencing residents' travel choice factors.In order to determine the influence difference of variables on residents' travel mode choice from the influencing factors of travel mode,a structural equation model of urban residents' travel mode choice is constructed to study travel behavior,and endogenous variables and exogenous variables are divided to provide reference basis for optimizing residents' travel structure.In addition,aiming at the travel behavior reflected by the existing data,a Multinominal Logit Model is constructed to analyze the characteristics of different travel modes,so as to better describe the characteristics of travel activities.The main results show that:(1)Based on massive survey data,this thesis studies the travel time and space characteristics of urban residents in Jinan,and analyzes the hot spots of travel by using heat map.The research finds that the travel peak of different age groups all appeared in the morning peak from 7:00am to 9:00am and evening peak from 17:00pm to 19:00pm,but there are differences between the elderly group and the non-elderly group in travel purpose and hot spots.Using Kepler database to analyze the hot spots,it can be seen that the elderly mainly travel for home and leisure,and the hot spots are concentrated in squares and bus stops,such as Qili He.Non-elderly people are more likely to travel home,work and official business,and the hot spots are concentrated in overpasses,expressways and elevated roads.(2)Based on personal attributes,family attributes and travel attributes,a structural equation model is established to analyze the impact of different variables under various attributes on the choice of travel modes.The data significance test shows that personal attributes,family attributes and travel attributes have a significant impact on travel modes.The structural equation model test results show that different travel distances will affect the choice of travel modes.With the increase of travel distance,residents will reduce their choice tendency of riding and increase their choice tendency of public or driving.In addition,with different travel time,there are differences in the choice of travel modes between the elderly and non-elderly groups.When the travel time is short,the elderly people prefer to travel by private car,while the non-elderly people prefer to travel by bus.(3)The MNL model parameters are calibrated by taking driving trip as a reference category,and the internal mechanism of residents' choice of different travel modes is analyzed.The model fitting test and parameter calibration verify that the model has high accuracy.Based on the above research,some suggestions are put forward to alleviate the urban traffic pressure,such as restricting the use of private cars,customizing special buses for the elderly,and strengthening land use. |
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