The Impact Of The Two-child Policy On The Second-child Birth Behavior And Household Consumption

The current imbalance in China's population structure has become increasingly serious,and the problems of "less children" and "aging" have become prominent.To this end,the Central Government implemented the "two children alone" policy and the "all-round two children" policy in November 2013 and December 2015,respectively.However,the rationality of the policies does not mean that satisfactory results can be achieved.From a perspective,the "coldness alone" has become a consensus,and the implementation effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy has been decreasing year by year.As fertility policy is closely related to family and socio-economic needs,it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of the two-child policy on second-child fertility behaviors and family consumption in the context of further encouragement of childbearing.This article uses the Chinese Family Tracking Survey Data(CFPS)to try to put the two-child policy of "single two-child" and "comprehensive two-child" in an interpretive framework.Based on the individual perspective of the family,the main research and answers are the following:(1)Does the two-child policy affect the reproductive behavior of one-child families? What is the level of fertility in the second child?(2)Does the two-child policy affect the consumption level of one-child families? If so,what is the level of consumption effect? If not,is there an internal mechanism?From a micro perspective,the implementation of the two-child policy will directly affect the child-bearing behavior of the target family,and the resulting changes in the number of children will further affect household consumption decisions.In addition,from "two children alone" to "full two children" is a gradual process in which China's two-child policy has gradually been fully liberalized.CFPS),try to put the two-child policy twice in an explanatory framework,and mainly study and answer the following questions:(1)Does the two-child policy affect the reproductive behavior of the two-child family in the one-child family? What is the level of second child fertility?(2)For the target family group affected by the second-child policy,does the second-child reproductive behavior affect its total consumption level? If so,what is the degree of change? If not,is there an internal mechanism?The full text consists of five chapters.The first chapter is an introduction.It first introduces the research background and significance of the research.Secondly,it combs the domestic and foreign literature on the impact of fertility policy on fertility behavior and household consumption,and constructs the research framework of this article.The second chapter is the analysis of the theoretical mechanism.First,the concept of the research subject is defined,and the transformation process of China's family planning policy,population structure,and household consumption structure is briefly described.Secondly,it explains the transmission mechanism among the two-child policy,the second-child reproductive behavior,and family consumption.Based on the micro-path,this article will firstly affect the second-child reproductive behavior of the target family,and then affect its family consumption level.The effects of household consumption are discussed separately on the two mechanisms of promotion and inhibition.Finally,the overall heterogeneity is discussed.The third chapter is an empirical analysis of the influence of the two-child policy on the reproductive behavior of the second child.Using the cross-sectional data of the CFPS2010,2012,2014,and 2016 data,the Logit probability model was used to estimate the two families before and after the two-child policy implementation.Changes in the fertility rate of the second child of non-independent families to explore the impact of the two-child policy on the reproductive behavior of the second child.Chapter 4 is an empirical analysis of the impact of the two-child policy on household consumption.Because the target group 's second-child reproductive behavior is observable,the data from the CFPS 2010,2012,2014,and 2016 periods are combined into two sets of two-period panel data.PSM-DID model to explore the impact of the target family 's second child reproductive behavior on household consumption.Second,conduct a robust test,and test the mechanism of the internal mechanism of this effect,namely the promotion effect and the inhibition effect.Chapter 5 summarizes the main conclusions of the full text and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.The study found that:(1)The heterogeneity of the two-child reproductive behavior in one-child families is obvious.In the western region,rural families,rural households,low-income families,low-age families,and one-child families where one child is female The probability of reproductive behavior of the second child is greater.(2)The "two children alone" policy has no significant impact on the reproductive behavior of the two children of the target family(single family),which basically supports the academic consensus of "cold alone".Given the two-child reproductive behavior,the "two children alone" policy has no impact on the total level of household consumption.This result may be due to a smaller sample of households and the number of two children born.(3)The "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy has a significant impact on the second-child births of target families(non-independent families).Before and after the implementation of the policy,the odds ratio of the second-child birth behavior of non-independent families increased from 0.73 to 1.46.Effect,but the result of the second child birth after 2017 has weakened the stimulation of the "full two-child" policy on second child birth.Further empirical testing that affects household consumption found that the "full child" also had no effect on the total consumption level of non-independent families.(4)Comparatively speaking,from "two children alone" to "full children",the reproductive behavior of two children has been released to a greater extent.However,it did not have a significant impact on household consumption,and further robust tests(replacement propensity matching method;replacement estimation method;extended sample period;replacement of the explained variable to the total household expenditure including home purchase loan expenditure)also support this conclusion.(5)The results of the mechanism test show that the two-child policy has a significant promotion effect on the total consumption of high-income families,but it has a significant inhibitory effect on the development and enjoyment of low-income families.Mutual offsetting may be one of the explanations that the "two-child policy does not affect household consumption".Based on the above conclusions,this article proposes from the two aspects of promoting the birth of two children and stimulating family consumption that further liberalization and encouragement of birth should be further accelerated,and the policy support system under the new birth model should be accelerated to expand the number of two-child families.Promote the linkage between maternity policies and related social and economic policies,thereby enhancing household consumption demand and consumption capacity.Of course,there are still many problems to be solved in this article.For example,the setting of target households not only improves the precision of policy research,but also brings the shortage of fewer effective samples,which creates obstacles for this article to dig deeper into the differences in policy effects of families with different characteristics.In addition,this article only examines the second child's fertility behavior and household consumption from a microscopic path,taking into account the lag of the transmission of the macroscopic path,and does not consider the impact of general equilibrium.