Study On The Early Warning System Of The Academic Labor Market In Universities

With the social and economic development of China and the implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education,the number of domestic doctoral graduates increases every year,and overseas doctoral graduates keep returning.However,there is an insufficient demand on the other side while total supply of China's academic labor market in universities keeps expanding.The contradiction between supply and demand in the academic labor market in universities has gradually emerged,and vacant academic positions are faced with overloaded candidates,so employment quality of doctors arouses public concern.In recent years,the research on the academic labor market in China has focused on its operation characteristics and employment trend of academic labors,but there are few studies to mention about the notion of ‘the Early Warning System of Academic Labor Market'.Therefore,to analyze the supply-demand relationship and its impact factors,and to construct the early warning system of the academic labor market in universities,will be useful to prevent the imbalance of supply and demand in the academic labor market.Based on the theory of supply and demand analysis and early warning system,this study establishes an analytical framework for the early warning system of the academic labor market in universities.Firstly,the early warning system consists of three logical parts: warning situation judgement,warning source monitoring and warning alert dissemination.Secondly,the early warning system is designed in accordance with the principles of systematicness,scientificity and comprehensiveness.The early warning information system is composed of a background module and a foreground module.In warning situation judgement and warning source monitoring,this study attempts to construct a warning indicator system for doctors' academic employment by summarizing current indicators of doctors' employment.In addition,macro impact factors of the academic labor market in universities are converted into quantitative indicators to further monitor sources of alert-situation.In warning alert dissemination,the ARIMA model of time series measurement model is used to predict the number of doctoral graduates and the number of new teachers in regular higher education institutions from 2019 to 2023.At the same time,five grades of warning in the academic labor market in universities are defined.Based on the employment reports of graduates,the enrollment scale of doctors,the number of full-time teachers in regular higher education institutions,combining with the historical documents,we find that the imbalance between supply and demand in the academic labor market in universities shows in three aspects.First,there are contradictions between doctoral education and labor demand for faulty.Second,the increasing competition,the decreasing stability and segmentation show in the academic profession.Thirdly,the controlling of doctoral enrollment and graduation scale is inefficient to adjust the supply and demand structure of the academic labor market in universities.Thus,the establishment of the early warning system will optimize the regulation mechanism of demand and supply,and play a positive guiding role in the academic labor market in universities.After constructing the early warning system,this study puts forward some policy suggestions for the government,universities and the job market under the circumstance of supply-side reform.