Analysis Of The Spatial Spillover Effects Of Demographic Change On Economic Growth

With the emergence of China’s new normalization of economic based on the new demographic normal,the focus of China’s scholars on population research has gradually shifted to the issue of demographic changes and the economic activities of the population.Population ageing is the most significant feature of the new demographic normal,and the demographic dividend has gradually diminished or even disappeared under the current situation where the proportion of people aged 65 and above in China is increasing.According to the relevant UN standards,in 2016,all 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China(except for Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)have entered an ageing society,and the rate of ageing is still accelerating,and will continue to face the pressure of long-term balanced population development for some time to come.The demographic variable is an intrinsic factor affecting economic development,and it is closely linked to China’s economic development.The new population growth trend will lead to new challenges for China’s economy,and for this reason,in the coming period,we need to actively deal with population ageing and promote long-term balanced population development,so as to maintain sustainable,healthy and coordinated economic growth.This is an important part of our 14 th Five-Year Plan and Vision 2035.Since 2000,China’s new demographic norm has also manifested itself in the following ways: the quality of education of the population has been improving,with the proportion of the population with quality education increasing;the urbanization of the population has been developing rapidly,with the urbanization rate increasing significantly and the comprehensive strength of cities increasing;the industrial structure of the population has been shifting towards the tertiary industry and has gradually transformed into a "Third,Second,First" type,which is the modern population-industry structure.It can be seen that a new demographic dividend is being formed from the improvement of the quality of population education,the increase in the level of urbanization and the adjustment of the industrial structure of the population.With the widespread use of spatial econometric methods,more and more scholars are empirically demonstrating the impact of demographic structure on regional economic growth from a spatial perspective,but many scholars simplify the change in demographic structure by equating it with the change in the age structure of the population.Based on a geographically weighted spatial weight matrix,this thesis decomposes the spatial spillover effects into direct and indirect aspects using a partial differential approach.The results show that at the national level,the direct effect of the elderly population dependency ratio and the child population dependency ratio on real GDP per capita is significantly negative,while the indirect effect is significantly positive,that means an increase in the dependency burden inhibits the economic growth of the local region.The indirect effect of changes in the educational structure of the population on real GDP per capita is significantly positive,suggesting that the accumulation of highly educated human capital will drive economic growth in the surrounding areas.The direct and indirect effects of changes in the urban-rural structure of the population on real GDP per capita are both significantly positive,which means that the development of urbanization of the population can boost the economic growth of the local region and the surrounding areas.The direct effect of population-industry structure on real GDP per capita is not significant,while the indirect effect is negative.A reasonable population structure is a necessary guarantee for sustainable economic development.In the context of China’s ageing population,the impact of demographic changes on economic transformation is becoming increasingly significant,and it is necessary for us to pay attention to the contribution of population education,urban-rural and industrial structural changes to China’s sustainable economic growth in the new era,and to actively explore the negative impact of an ageing population on economic growth while delaying the ageing of the population and adequately responding to the role of population education,urban-rural and industrial structure in promoting economic growth.Therefore,based on the spatial Durbin model,this paper adds the interaction term of population education,urban-rural and industrial structure and population age structure,aiming to further explore the bias effect of population education,urban-rural and industrial structure and population age structure on economic growth,and to explore the positive impact of population education,urban-rural and industrial structure on economic growth,so that population education,urban-rural and industrial structure can contribute to the sustainable growth of China’s economy under the new normal.The results show that the age structure of the population and the industrial structure of the population have a positive impact on economic growth.The results show that the interaction coefficients of population age structure and population education structure are insignificant but positively correlated with real GDP per capita,while the interaction coefficients of population age structure and population urban-rural and industrial structure are significantly and positively correlated with real GDP per capita.This suggests that changes in the educational,rural-urban,and industrial structure of the population can offset the dampening effect of population ageing on economic growth to some extent.On the other hand,behind China’s rapid economic growth,the problem of unbalanced and uncoordinated regional economic development has become increasingly prominent,so this paper uses principal component analysis to conduct panel clustering of multi-indicator panel data containing the population structure and economic growth of 30 provinces,municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions(excluding Tibet and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2019,and according to the clustering results combined with the four major economic region classification guidelines Based on the clustering results,the 30 provinces are classified into the adjusted eastern,central,western and northeastern regions.On this basis,the spatial spillover effects of demographic changes on the economic growth of different regions are studied.Finally,based on the above empirical results,this paper puts forward targeted recommendations on the population policies of the adjusted eastern,central,western and northeastern regions respectively.