Evaluation And Influencing Factors Of Policy Effect Of The Maritime Power Strategy

Since the report of the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012 clearly put forward the maritime power strategy for the first time,the maritime power strategy has become the fundamental principle of building China’s socialist marine cause.As a major strategic deployment made by China in response to the international and domestic situation since the new century,the maritime power strategy aims to further revitalize the national economy and ultimately realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through the construction of marine undertakings.The coastal provincial-level regions have also actively responded to the strategy of strengthening the marine economy and issued various policies and measures to promote the development of the marine economy.According to the marine statistics bulletin,the proportion of the gross marine product in the GDP of the coastal areas is as high as 16% or more.So,has the implementation of the maritime power strategy played a substantial role in promoting the economic growth of coastal areas? The discussion and research on this issue can provide necessary decision-making direction for the subsequent formulation of relevant marine policies and the promotion of economic development in coastal areas.Based on the review and analysis of existing research results at home and abroad,guided by Marx and Engels’ ocean theory,CPC’s leading collective ocean theory,economic growth theory,growth pole theory,counterfactual thinking theory,and based on the panel data of 31provincial-level regions in China from 1999 to 2020,this thesis uses the HCW model based on the "counterfactual" thinking to quantitatively assess the policy effect of the maritime power strategy in coastal areas,combined with kernel density estimation,GIS spatial analysis technology and Geodetector analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the policy effect of the maritime power strategy in 2013-2020,and put forward corresponding suggestions.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)From 2013 to 2020,the average policy effect of China’s maritime power strategy was 0.94%,indicating that the implementation of the maritime power strategy promoted the average annual growth of the real per capita GDP of the entire coastal area by 0.94 percentage points during the study period,which played a role in promoting the economic growth of the coastal areas.During the study period,the policy effect showed a "N" shape fluctuation trend of first rising,then falling,and then slowly rising.The degree of dispersion decreased,and its absolute difference decreased over time.(2)There is no significant change in the spatial distribution of the lowest-and highest-value areas of the policy effect of the maritime power strategy.The spatial distribution of the medium-value areas show a trend of transferring from north to south,while the second-highest-value areas show a trend of transferring from south to north,and the gap of policy effect between regions is narrowed.From the regional perspective,according to the changes in the policy effect of the maritime power strategy in the coastal provincial-level regions,they can be divided into three types: enhanced type,which are Hebei,Liaoning,Jiangsu,Fujian and Guangxi;Stable type,Shandong,Shanghai,Tianjin and Hainan;Descending type,Zhejiang and Guangdong respectively.(3)The result of factor detection shows that all the influencing factors have passed the significance test.Among them,the investment in marine science and technology is the main driving factor affecting the policy effect of the maritime power strategy,with an explanatory power of 52.9%.The order of explanatory power of the influencing factors is as follows: investment in marine technology >degree of openness > maritime human capital > marine resource endowment > advanced level of maritime industrial structure > informatization level.The results of interaction detection show that the interactions between pairwise factors have enhanced the impact on the policy effect of the maritime power strategy,and the types of interactions are dual factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.