Industrial Decomposition And Path Analysis Of Embodied Oil Exports From China To The EU

Embodied oil is defined as the oil consumed directly and indirectly in all the activities to provide products and services.In addition to meeting China’s domestic demand,the imported oil will also flow out through China’s export,in the form of embodied oil.The trade supported by imported oil is not conducive to high-quality economic development and poses a serious threat to national energy security.In recent years,with the expansion of China’s export to the EU and the deepening international division of labor,sectoral structure is upgrading,and the cost of resource and environment is higher as well.To control the embodied oil outflow,this thesis takes the embodied oil flowing in China’s export to the EU as research object,by constructing the input-output model and applying the industry-linkage-based decomposition method as well as the structural path analysis method.This thesis analyzes the volume,stage and sectoral structure of embodied oil exported to the EU from 2000 to 2014,and identifies the embodied oil cost of trade profits as well as the critical path of embodied oil outflow.According to the empirical results,we draw the following conclusions:First,the volume of embodied oil first rises and then falls,reflecting the stage characteristics.The volume peaked in 2007,and then changed into the downward channel with fluctuations.In 2014,the volume reached 35.11Mt of standard oil,16.28%down from the peak.By value-added analysis,we can draw the conclusion that the embodied oil cost of value-added continues to decline,indicating the optimization of the profitability of export trade between China and the EU.Second,China has become a "transit station for embodied oil"at home and abroad,reflecting the production mode of processing trade based on embodied oil flow.The volume of embodied oil from domestic and aboard in exports from China to the EU,was spurred by China’s entry to the WTO.China has the dual characteristics of "importing trade oil,exporting domestic embodied oil" as "domestic embodied oil transfer station",and "importing foreign intermediate products,exporting foreign embodied oil" as "foreign embodied oil transfer station",which reflects the deepening of international industrial link and division of labor,linked by the embodied oil flow.Third,the matching of embodied oil cost and value-added is different for sectors.There is no strict linear relationship between the volume of embodied oil and valueadded.Based on the different matching results,sectors are divided into four categories.Other manufacturing is the low embodied oil with high value-added sector.The major export sectors like electronic and electrical equipment manufacturing,textile clothing and leather manufacturing and machinery equipment manufacturing,as well as pharmaceutical chemical industry belong to the vast embodied oil with high value added sectors.Coke and refined petroleum products,transportation and courier post sectors are key sectors,which belong to vast embodied oil with low value-added sectors.The rest sectors are low embodied oil with low value-added sectors.Fourth,advantageous export sectors are key sectors of embodied oil outflow from the perspective of production layers,critical paths and industrial linkage.The embodied oil outflow is concentrated at the lower production layers.For example,the embodied oil from manufacturing of electronic and electrical equipment clustered in layer 0,accounts for nearly 30%of the total volume of the sector.Most industries and services sectors concentrate in layer 1-2.From the perspective of critical path,the sectors on the paths are the key sectors of embodied oil outflow,such as pharmaceutical and chemical industry,coke and refined petroleum products,electronic and electrical equipment manufacturing and textile,clothing and leather manufacturing.Among them,the electronic and electrical equipment manufacturing,as well as textile,clothing and leather manufacturing sectors have led to a large number of related industrial production.These two sectors characterize by large export scale,low intensity of direct production of oil consumption,extensive related industries and close linkage with high oil consumption sectors.Based on the empirical results,the policy implications in this thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects:First,control "domestic embodied oil transfer",use "foreign embodied oil transfer".Second,restrict the export of resource products with energyextensive consumption and high pollution to avoid embodied oil outflow inefficiently.Third,optimize the mode and structure of trade to promote the export of sectors with low embodied oil and high value-added.Fourth,focus on the industrial linkage between major sectors and reduce the embodied oil outflow from key production links.Highlight:First,the thesis focuses on embodied oil in exports from China to the EU,pays attention to the volume and sectoral structure of embodied oil flows in trade,depicts the characteristics of embodied oil at sectoral level,and supplement the analysis of embodied oil.Second,applying the methods of input-output analysis,industriallinkage-based decomposition and structural path analysis.The thesis uses quadrant to divide value-added profit and embodied oil cost of sectors in exports from China to the EU,realizing the resource cost evaluation of sectors’profit.