The Research Of Carbon Embodied In China's Trade

With the development of global economic integration,the status of international trade in the global economy is becoming more and more important,and the resulting carbon emissions from international trade are also increasing.Embodied carbon refers to carbon emission of the complete production of commodities After China's accession to the WTO,foreign trade has grown rapidly,but China is still in a lower position in the international industrial chain.Export trade is heavily dependent on high-carbon emissions industries;while developed economies have higher industrial levels and the export trade to China's most of high value-added,low-carbon emissions industry,so trade between China and developed economies has produced an export of embodied carbon,and China has assumed some carbon emissions for consumption in developed economies.At present,the international definition of carbon emission reduction responsibility is based on the producer's commitment system,which is based on the carbon emissions within the territory of a country,thus ignoring the transfer of embodied carbon in international trade,it is unfavorable for the country of lower production.It is necessary to evaluate the carbon emissions of a country from both the production side and the consumption side in order to reflect the true carbon emission level of a country objectively.Data used in the paper is from the WIOT world investment output table and the corresponding environmental sanitation account in the WIOD database.This paper uses the multiregional input-output method to estimate the embodied carbon emissions of trade arising from multilateral trade between China and USA.Japan?South Korea based on production and consumption in China from 2000 to 2009;and uses of the LMDI method(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method)to factorize the changes in China's export trade embodied carbon in 2000 and 2009.Specifically,the research content has the following three points:(1)Estimating carbon embodied in China's multilateral trade between the US,Japan and South Korea based on production and consumption from 2000 to 2009 through multiregional input-output model.The net carbon embodied in trade is the difference between the embodied carbon emissions at the production and the embodied carbon emissions on the consumption.Calculate the carbon embodied in the bilateral trade between China and USA?Japan?South Korea,compare the differences in the carbon embodied in trade between China and the three countries of the United States,Japan and South Korea;(2)According to the results of the multiregional input-output model,the net export embodied carbon of 35 industries in China's multilateral trade is calculated,and the net export volume of embodied carbon in different industries is compared.The specific industries' export embodied carbon of China's bilateral trade to the three countries of the United States?Japan and South Korea is also calculated.Compare the difference of the characteristics of the embodied carbon for three countries by industry;(3)Use the LMDI method to decompose the changes in China's export trade embodied carbon emissions in 2000 and 2009 to three factors.For the sum of technical,structural and scale effects,the technical,structural and scale effects of 35 industries are derived,and the contribution of technological,structural and scale effects to trade embodied carbon changes is separate.Compare the differences in the contribution of different industries.In this way,an effective method for reducing the implied carbon of export trade is determined.Due to the lack of data,the previous research literature on China's trade implied carbon is based on the single region input-output model.In the single-region input-output model,all of China's trading partner countries are generally regarded as a whole,without distinction.The source country of the intermediate product is also without distinction,and also assumes that the level of production technology at home and abroad is same,so it is impossible to accurately measure the net export value of China's trade embodied carbon.The WIOT World Input-Output Table used in this paper describes in detail the input-output relationship between different industry sectors in different countries.The multiregional input-output model is used to accurately estimate the implications of embodied carbon in multilateral trade between China,the United States,Japan and South Korea.The conclusions drawn in this paper are mainly as follows:(1)In each year from 2000 to 2009,China has a net export of trade embodied carbon in the multilateral trade of the three countries of the United States,Japan,and Korea,onlyin 2008 and 2009,due to the impact of the global economic crisis,the net export of trade implied carbon decreased slightly,while the net export of trade implied carbon in other years increased year by year.From 2000 to 2009,the net export of carbon of China's multilateral trade increased from 27.25 Mt to 47.32 Mt,an increase of 73.65%.From 2000 to 2009,the embodied carbon for US trade increased from 20.53Mt to 30.13Mt,an increase of 51.63%;the embodied carbon for Japan trade increased from 4.99Mt to 12.29Mt,an increase of 146.29%;the trade embodied carbon for South Korea from 1.72Mt Increased to 3.90Mt,an increase of 126.74%;(2)From 2000 to 2009,China's 35 industries' trade embodied carbon data can be seen that larger industries of embodied carbon are textile and textile products manufacturing,leather and leather products,manufacturing,electrical and the optical equipment manufacturing industry,the water transportation industry,etc.The textile and textile industry is the industry with the largest embodied carbon emissions in China's trade;in the bilateral trade between the United States,Japan and South Korea,the carbon of industry is different,but the embodied carbon in the textile industry is the largest among the three countries' trade;(3)The results of the LMDI method can be seen:the technical effect makes China the embodied carbon in export trade was reduced by 80.08 Mt;the structural effect had little effect on the export implied carbon change,which increased the export implied carbon by 0.69 Mt;the scale effect increased the export embodied carbon by 115.66 Mt.As the contribution of scale effect is greater than the technical effect,the embodied carbon of China's export trade has increased by 36.27Mt.Policy recommendations:In order to cope with the excessive growth of China's trade embodied carbon,China should start from three aspects:(1)Reducing energy intensity,reducing the use of fossil energy such as coal,increasing the use of relatively clean energy such as natural gas,increasing the use and development of new energy,and improving the structure of energy consumption;(2)promoting industrial upgrading and technological advances.In the long run,China's economy must transform,change its position downstream of the international industrial division of labor,increase exports of high value-added industries,reduce the export volume of high-emission industries,and moderately encourage the import of high-energy and high-emission products;(3)defending the legitimate right in international climate negotiations,clarifies the responsibility of developed countries for the embodied carbon of trade,promotes the transfer of clean production technologies from developed countries to China,and strives for time for industrial upgrading and economic transformation.