| At present,China has entered a new stage of high-quality development.The problems of resource and environment in the past development process are becoming more and more apparent,hindering the pace of Chinese economic transformation.In order to solve the contradiction between economic development and resources and environment,green development as one of the new development concepts has been gradually put forward and put into practice,so as to promote the development of a new era of harmonious coexistence between man and nature.Northwest China is an important resource base with extremely important ecological status and ecological value.Among which,as an important ecological security barrier,Gansu Province is an important province to ensure national ecological security.In the process of grasping development opportunities and promoting economic transformation,Gansu Province still faces problems such as insufficient economic growth power and severe resource and environmental situation.Besides,the green development of Gansu Province is the strategic need of the country,and there is still a lack of targeted index system for evaluation and analysis.Therefore,scientific construction of green development index system in Gansu Province,accurate analysis of the timing changes and coordination degree of green development,and further prediction of the future trend of green development are conducive to identifying the problems existing in green development in Gansu Province,and provide reference for improving green development level and realizing green transformation in Gansu Province.In this paper,Gansu Province is the main research object.Based on the connotation of green development,correlation analysis method and principal component analysis method are used to conduct preliminary screening of indicators and fine screening of indicators,and entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of indicators after screening.From the five dimensions of green resource,green environment,green economy,green technology and green society,Gansu Province green development comprehensive index indicator system is constructed with strong objectivity.This paper uses TOPSIS model(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)to measure and analyze the green development level of Gansu Province from 2011 to2020.To judge the degree of coupling coordination among the green development dimensions of Gansu Province,compare and analyze the differences between Gansu Province and Shanxi Province,Qinghai Province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in the development of Northwest China.Grey GM(1,1)model is used to predict the development of each index data in Gansu Province from 2021 to 2030,and the change trend of green development in Gansu Province in the next 10 years is analyzed,as well as the change characteristics of green development in Gansu Province in the region.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2020,the overall level of green development in Gansu Province improves.The green society,green resource and green environment dimension development drive the green transformation of Gansu Province.Factors such as water resources,capital investment,economic exchanges,enterprise development and enterprise talents should be the focus of the green transformation of Gansu Province.(2)From 2011 to 2020,the development level of all dimensions in Gansu Province increases,and the inter-dimension coupling coordination degree changes to the high-quality coordination type.(3)From 2011 to2020,the overall level of green development in Northwest China increases,and there are great differences among provinces in green development level.Gansu Province makes rapid progress in the process of green development in Northwest China,and rises to the third place in 2020.The dimension of green economy and green technology is relatively backward.(4)From 2021 to 2030,the green development level of Gansu Province presents an upward trend,and the speed of improvement is basically unchanged.The development level of all dimensions is improved,but the development of green resources and green economy is relatively slow.(5)From 2021 to 2030,the green development level of Northwest China maintains an upward trend.Gansu Province maintains the third place in the process of green development in Northwest China,with the best development in green environment dimension,but still lags behind in green economy dimension.The conclusion shows that the green development of Gansu Province continues to improve and is relatively fast in the development of northwest China.However,the economic and technological aspects are in urgent need of improvement.This study provides data support for the future planning of relevant departments in Gansu Province. |
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