Study On The Effect Of Carbon Emission Trading Policy In China

In 2021,China has already crossed the "environmental inflection point",but environmental management and carbon emission reduction are still the top priorities of the country’s governance.In October 2011,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)identified carbon emissions trading pilots nationwide in October2011 in Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Chongqing,Hubei,Guangdong,Shenzhen,and these seven provinces and cities launched local carbon trading from the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2014.The measurement of the relationship between environmental efficiency,economic growth,and technological progress through carbon trading policy can better reflect the effect of environmental governance in China,so as to better evaluate the effect of China’s environmental protection policy and promote the harmonious development of economy and environment.First,this study theoretically explores the mechanism of carbon emission trading policy affecting environmental efficiency,technological progress,and economic growth,and then takes 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2020 as research objects,selects input indicators,desired output indicators,and non-desired output indicators to construct an environmental efficiency evaluation index system,and uses the super-efficiency SBM model to evaluate the environmental efficiency of Chinese provinces and cities.The GML index model is used to measure the environmental total factor productivity and do the index decomposition,and the current situation analysis of environmental efficiency is carried out in two dimensions of time evolution characteristics and spatial difference characteristics.Taking 2013 as the starting year of carbon trading policy implementation,we explore the environmental effects,economic growth effects and technological progress effects generated by the carbon trading policy through a double difference model,and conduct a dynamic analysis of the policy effects of carbon trading rights based on the consideration of the possible dynamic fluctuation characteristics of the policy.Robustness tests were conducted by parallel trend hypothesis tests,counterfactual tests,propensity score-double difference tests,and locational heterogeneity analysis.Finally,the spatial spillover effects of carbon trading policy are analyzed by constructing a spatial econometric model based on inverse distance weights and neighboring weights and their decomposition.The results of the above study provide some policy references on how to strengthen the management of the environment in China and how to promote the interaction between economic growth,technological progress and environmental regulation.It is found that the overall level of environmental efficiency in China is not high,and there are significant differences in environmental efficiency among the three major regions in the east,central and west.The environmental GML index of Chinese provinces and cities shows an upward trend,and the variability of environmental total factor productivity development fluctuates greatly.The carbon emission trading policy can effectively realize the environmental dividend and economic dividend in the pilot area,and can realize the technological dividend to a certain extent,and achieve the triple dividend effect,and the carbon emission trading policy has the most obvious environmental effect on the pilot area,and the impact on economic growth exceeds the impact on technological progress;during the study period,the environmental dividend of carbon trading policy fluctuated dynamically,showing a relatively stable environmental effect in the short term,and the environmental effect was not significant and the effect diminished in the long term,and the impact of carbon emission trading policy on economic growth remained significant and increasing,and at the same time produced a weak effect of technological progress.The carbon emissions trading policy can significantly contribute to the environmental and economic growth dividends in the pilot sites,while there are obvious spatial spillover effects and locational heterogeneity,and the development of neighboring regions helps to enhance the technological progress in the pilot sites.The innovation of this paper is to consider the impact of undesired output when measuring environmental efficiency using the super-efficient SBM model,and to consider the triple dividend of environment,economic growth and technological progress brought by carbon trading policy,which is of practical significance.The disadvantage is that the choice of observed variables is subjective and there is a lack of more ways to verify the findings,and there are limitations in the consideration of policy implementation effects.