Study On Construction Schedule Risk Assessment Of Water Diversion Project

In order to solve the problems of water shortage and uneven spatial-temporal distribution of water resources in some regions of China,China has built a water diversion project across river basins to ensure the rational allocation and efficient utilization of water resources.The construction of water diversion project needs to cross watershed and region,which is a typical linear project.Project construction is characterized by large investment scale,complex construction environment,long construction period,difficult construction organization and management,etc.The construction process of the project is often disturbed by various risk factors,resulting in time delay and lagging progress.Therefore,it is of good theoretical and practical significance to systematically study risk management of construction progress of water diversion project.The main research work and achievements in this paper are as follows:(1)Construction schedule risk evaluation index system of water diversion project is constructed.Based on the characteristics of water diversion project construction and construction schedule risk,comprehensive risk identification is carried out by using Hall three-dimensional structure,literature statistics,expert evaluation,etc.According to the selection principle of evaluation indexes,risk factors should be perfectly integrated.Four criterion layers including organization and management,economy,construction environment,construction quality,and 12 scheme layers are selected to establish construction schedule risk evaluation index system.(2)Construct risk assessment model for construction progress of water diversion project.Considering the uncertainties existing in the expert evaluation process,AHP and EWM methods are selected to determine the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indexes respectively.In view of the grey fuzziness of risk assessment system for construction progress of water diversion project,the risk assessment set is established according to five-level risk classification standard,and a grey clustering comprehensive evaluation model of whitening weight function based on combination weighting is constructed according to grey system theory to systematically determine the risk level of construction progress of water diversion project.(3)Example application.The risk evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation model for construction progress of water diversion project are applied to construction management of Henan section of the diversion project.According to the construction schedule made by Henan Section Project,the key lines and key projects are determined by structural decomposition and CPM method,and the construction schedule risk is comprehensively evaluated.According to the results of risk assessment,the risk level of overall construction schedule of key lines of the project is determined,and suggestions and measures for key risk factors are put forward to provide reference for risk management of construction schedule of the project.