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Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Of Schedule Risk Of Hydraulic Engineering Based On Combination Weighting

Posted on:2020-05-25Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z W WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2392330596982543Subject:Water conservancy project
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As a national key construction project,the water conservancy project plays a vital role in hydropower generation,flood-controlled irrigation,residential water and ecological civilization construction.Due to the large water conservancy project has a large scale,long construction period,wide range,and affected by many factors such as characteristics,and built in relatively complex terrain mountain valley area,and often will encounter all sorts of risks in the construction process.Especially the schedule risk,the engineering accidents caused by it,when the circumstances are slight,the project can not be put into operation on time,seriously affecting the investment,quality and profitability of the project,and even causing huge economic losses.Therefore,it is necessary to cite effective methods to analyze and evaluate the risk of construction period,and take effective measures to prevent it,which plays an important role for project's economic benefits.This paper takes the schedule risk of water conservancy project as the research object,and its main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)This paper expounds the commonly used risk identification methods of Engineering projects,and starts with the internal and external risks of water conservancy projects,analyzes the influencing factors of project duration risk,and establishes a risk evaluation index system composed of four first-level indicators and 16 second-level indicators.Considering the grey and uncertain characteristics of risk indicators,this paper,on the basis of previous studies,compares the advantages and disadvantages of common risk assessment methods and their scope of application,applies the grey theory to the schedule risk assessment of water conservancy projects.The grey evaluation method analyzes the degree of influence of each risk factor based on the basic data that has been mastered,which not only effectively solves the incompleteness of the original data information,but also effectively reduces the bias caused by subjective evaluation.(2)In order to evaluate the schedule risks better,this paper makes a thorough study on various weighting methods,and we use the combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and Entropy Weight to determine the weight of each index factor of schedule risk,combines with grey system theory,establishes a grey evaluation model of the schedule risk of water conservancy projects based on combination weighting,and elaborates the specific process of risk analysis.(3)Taking a water project as the background,this paper identifies,analyses and evaluates the schedule risk of the project by using the established model,and obtains the schedule risk grade and key risk factors of the project.Based on high risk factors,some prevention measures and suggestions are put forward.(4)Through the analysis of the theoretical results and the actual situation,it is found that the grey comprehensive evaluation model has certain applicability and superiority for evaluating the schedule risk of water conservancy projects.It can be predicted that it will have a good application and promotion prospect after continuous practice and improvement.
Keywords/Search Tags:Water Conservancy Project, Schedule Risk, Combination Weighting, Grey Comprehensive Evaluation
PDF Full Text Request
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