| In recent years,the number of urban motor vehicles has increased year by year,and the phenomenon of crowded urban roads and difficult parking is common.Rail transit,as a kind of transportation with large volume,high timeliness,energy saving and environmental protection,is favored.Rail transit construction,however,the high cost and long construction period cause rail line network to cover every corner of the city,in order to improve rail transit service radius,solve the problem of parking facilities construction lags behind,the combination of the drive and rail-park-and-ride travel arises at the historic moment,to make drivers transfer to rail lines one can stop,study the park-and-ride parking capacity is particularly important.This paper takes P&R parking lots as the research object.By analyzing the implementation effect of P&R facilities,it proposes the need to control the scale of parking lots reasonably.The users of P&R parking lots in rail transit stations are classified according to their travel purposes into three categories:commuting P&R use,non-commuting P&R use and non-transfer parking use.K-means clustering analysis based on SPSS software was used to verify the rationality of the classification results of objects and analyze the parking characteristics of objects of different categories.Then,a questionnaire was distributed to the inbound passengers near the P&R parking lot to obtain the influencing factors of travelers’ choice of travel mode to the rail transit station,providing necessary data support for parameter calibration and calibration of MNL model.Multinomial Logit models were established to predict the sharing rate of passenger flow between each travel mode and rail transit station,the proportion of stopping and connecting between each travel mode of rail transit station was obtained,and the prediction method of the number of P&R stops was proposed.According to the relationship between the parking demand times of public parking lots and the land use form,a multiple linear regression model was established to predict the non-change parking demand times.By considering the number of passengers per vehicle,classified parking turnover rate and the proportion of different types of parking purposes,The Times of parking demand in P&R parking lot was converted into P&R parking lot capacity,and a capacity determination method based on classified parking turnover rate was proposed.Finally,to demonstrate the rationality and applicability of the prediction method in this paper,the temporary P&R parking lot of Lumu station on Suzhou Rail transit Line2 and the P&R parking lot of Dawan Station with reconstruction planning were selected to measure the capacity,and the reasonable number of berths for the two P&R parking lots were determined. |