Prediction Of Energy Consumption And Cost Of Prefabricated Houses In Villages And Towns In Cold Regions Based On Multi-objective Optimization

By 2021,according to the data released by the seventh census of the National Bureau of statistics,China’s rural population is about 500 million,and the ownership and growth of rural housing is huge.During the 13 th Five Year Action Plan period,the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued several documents such as the 13 th five year plan action plan for prefabricated building and the measures for the management of prefabricated building industrial base,which laid the foundation for promoting the development of prefabricated building in villages and towns.Currently more than 100,000 prefabricated rural houses have been built nationwide.In the fourteenth five year plan,Mei Shiwen,deputy to the National People’s Congress,proposed to pay attention to the implementation of prefabricated building in Rural Revitalization.Prefabricated building is considered to be an important development direction of rural housing construction technology.In order to get the relative advantages of energy consumption and cost of prefabricated houses in villages and towns,this paper mainly explores the relationship between the cost and energy consumption of the envelope system and energy supply system of prefabricated houses in villages and towns in cold regions,as well as the optimization and prediction of the cost and energy consumption of prefabricated houses in villages and towns,so as to provide theoretical and data reference for the promotion of prefabricated houses in villages and towns.Firstly,through the investigation and analysis of traditional and prefabricated houses in villages and towns,secondly,the influencing factors of energy consumption and cost are analyzed,and finally the cost and energy consumption prediction models based on different factors are obtained.The research work of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:(1)On the basis of literature research,conduct research and analysis on the construction situation,building structure,and construction process of different building types in villages and towns,and summarize the structure types,enclosure structures and use of common traditional houses and prefabricated houses in villages and towns.Energy methods,etc.;through the summary and analysis of the design schemes of prefabricated houses in villages and towns,a typical house space is established.For different building types,fabricated wall structures and energy-saving material changes,computer simulation methods are used to calculate and compare the cooling and heating energy consumption of typical apartment types.Among them,the heating energy consumption of villages and towns in cold areas is much greater than the cooling energy consumption.The heating energy consumption of prefabricated steel structure houses is nearly half lower than that of brick-concrete structure heating.At the same time,energy-saving and thermal insulation of different wall structures and roofs and walls are obtained.The fitting relationship between material thickness and energy consumption provides a source of sub-functions for establishing a multi-objective optimized energy consumption objective function.(2)Based on the energy consumption simulation relationship and cost investigation and analysis data,establish the main function model of the operating energy consumption and operating cost of the prefabricated houses in villages and towns based on the envelope structure and energy use system.The roof and wall energy-saving material changes,window selection and energy supply system are optimized under the influence of residential use time factors.The multi-objective optimization results show that the residential use time has a great influence on the optimization results of the selection of building components,and the Pareto solution set gradually tends to be concentrated over time.Multi-objective optimization obtains a large number of Pareto optimization solution sets for decision-makers to choose the combined solution of enclosure parts and PV area according to time and different target weights.The optimization results are analyzed using the weighted sum method,and the multi-objective optimization equilibrium solution is obtained during the life of the energy-saving material.After a unified evaluation of the Pareto solution set,it is found that the fabricated light steel keel wall and the autoclaved ceramsite concrete wall are more suitable The use of EPS thermal insulation materials,prefabricated steam pressurized concrete walls and prefabricated PC sandwich thermal insulation exterior walls are more suitable for XPS thermal insulation materials.The equilibrium solution of the 12 combinations of fabricated walls and energy-saving materials can be used as prefabricated houses in villages and towns.Reference for selection of energy-saving parts and energy supply system.(3)Calculate and calculate the construction cost of different building types of brick-concrete structure and prefabricated structure by using the bill of quantities valuation method.Based on the literature and actual case summary,conduct statistical analysis on the construction cost and demolition cost of the building,and obtain different structure types.The total cost composition ratio and change law of village houses in villages and towns found that over time,the construction cost advantage of traditional brick-concrete structures will be broken by operating costs and demolition costs,and prefabricated houses in villages and towns have better economic efficiency.Finally,the neural network prediction method is used to train the pre-simulated and calculated operating energy consumption and total cost,and obtain the cost and energy consumption prediction model under different influencing factors,and verify the accuracy of the model.