Study On Passing Capacity In Restricted Channel Based On Multi-agent Simulation

The restricted channel to the open sea is frequently the zone where traffic conflicts and traffic delays occur,in the port’s restricted waterway system,there are special characteristics such as directional limit,mutation of cross-section size,and dense traffic flow which make it difficult to predict the timing of ships entering and leaving the port,increasing the risk of ship collisions.With the global seaborne trade volume continues to grow,the continuous upgrade of the large-scale ships,and the gradual increasing number of large ships,the channel,as the carrier of ships with limited capacity,has gradually become the main reason for restricting the development of ports.The situation is even more pronounced in restricted channel which is restrained by channel size or other factors.Therefore,the research on the transit capacity of waterways,especially the quantitative analysis of the passing capacity in the restricted channel,is of great significance for improving the level of port’s traffic management and the planning of traffic infrastructure.The navigation system in the port is a complex nonlinear system involving interrelated and interactive internal elements such as people,the environment,and information,etc.In order to understand the characteristics of system entities and work out exactly the passing capacity,a multi-agent method is introduced to model and simulate the process of ship’s navigation and operation in the harbor.On this basis,through strictly designed experiments,the influence caused by traffic flow,safe distance of ships,and berth operation efficiency on the passing capacity of the restricted waterway in the port is analyzed.Furthermore,combined with the characteristics of the restricted waterway,the navigation efficiency of the restricted channel to the open sea is defined by taking the navigation safety,system resource utilization and navigation comfort as the evaluation indicators,and the data envelopment analysis method with the introduction of the ideal decision-making unit is used to analyze the navigation efficiency in the different simulation conditions.The main research contents and innovations of the thesis are as follows.(1)Aiming at the problem of complex interaction and influence of multi-elements in the restricted waterway system of seaports,a simulation framework based on multi-agent is designed.Further,the Anylogic simulation platform is used to realize the construction of agent behavior in the system and its interaction model,which makes up for the lack of previous mathematical models or classical discrete event simulation in the description of ship traffic simulation details.(2)Aiming at the problem of the singleness evaluation of the indicators reflecting the operating state of restricted waterways,an efficiency evaluation system that comprehensively considers ship safety,system resource utilization and navigation comfort is proposed.And based on the DEA model of the ideal decision-making unit,the navigable conditions of the restricted channel under different factors combinations are evaluated and ranked.(3)Using the actual operation data of the coal port area of Huanghua Port as the model input and verification data,the changes of the evaluation index values which reflect the channel operation status under different combinations of traffic volume,ship safety distance,berth operation efficiency,etc.were studied,and based on reasonable analysis,the research result can provide a theoretical basis for the production decision in the port area.