| In recent years,with the prevention and control of air pollution and the improvement of clean and warm work,China has proposed measures such as vigorously adjusting and optimizing the energy consumption structure and paying attention to pollution control in autumn and winter.Accelerating the development and utilization of natural gas and increasing the proportion of natural gas in energy consumption is one of the important measures for China to promote the energy consumption revolution,build a clean and low-carbon modern energy system,and win the blue sky defense war.At present,China’s natural gas supply and demand gap continues to expand,and natural gas demand is mainly dependent on foreign imports.However,the construction of LNG terminals in China is not enough,and LNG terminals have become a key factor restricting LNG imports.Therefore,some ports have begun to build new LNG terminals to expand the import capacity of LNG.Building new LNG terminals in the existing port area,LNG ships entering and leaving the port may share the channel with other types of ships.As a dangerous ship,LNG ships have special requirements for navigation conditions and traffic organization.LNG ships entering and leaving the port will have certain impact on the navigation of other ships in the port area,which will affect the production operation of the whole port area.Therefore,it is urgent to seek a scientific and reasonable method to evaluate the impact of LNG ships entering and leaving the port on the navigation efficiency of the channel.Therefore,this paper is based on the navigation organization form and navigation requirements of LNG ships in the navigation channel,and considering the construction location and development scale of LNG terminals,the impact assessment model for the navigation efficiency of LNG ships entering and leaving the channel is established to objectively evaluate the navigation efficiency of LNG ships entering and leaving the port.Firstly,based on the domestic and international research on the impact assessment of ship navigation on port operations and navigation efficiency,combined with the navigation structure of LNG ships entering and leaving the port,the impact assessment model of navigation efficiency is proposed.Then,the complexity of the factors affecting the navigation efficiency of the navigation channel and the uncertainty of the relevant factors of the evaluation model are analyzed.Based on the multi-agent simulation theory,the simulation model of the navigation operation of the ship entering and leaving the port is established.Taking a port area as an example,combined with the future development needs and planning of the LNG in the port area,and fully considering the location of the LNG terminal,the berths of different operation areas and the navigation channels,etc.,through the simulation of the navigation of the ship and the production and operation of the port area,the whole year is navigable.Objectively assess the impact of LNG ships entering and leaving the port in the winter peak heating period and different operating areas and different types of ships.Finally,based on the LNG ship navigation organization form and navigation safety distance,the navigation optimization plan is further proposed,and the optimization effect is compared and analyzed,and relevant suggestions are proposed for the construction and operation of the port area.This study provides decision support for the selection of scientific decision-making terminals,the reasonable determination of the receiving capacity of LNG terminals,and the optimization of ship transportation organization plans within the navigation channel. |