Research On The Risk Of Urban Rail Transit "Metro + Property" Development Mode

As China’s economic development has shifted from high-speed development to high-quality development,people’s yearning for a better life is increasing.In recent years,the major cities of China have set off the development of urban rail transit wave.The development of urban rail transit has significant advantages,such as accelerating the speed of urban extension development,reducing the pressure of ground traffic,and creating a new type of business with the integrated development of housing,commerce and transportation.However,the construction of urban rail transit projects is characterized by long investment cycle,large capital demand and intensive use.The single development mode derived from the financial input of local government seriously restricts the feasibility and sustainability of rail transit construction.The theory and practice of the development and construction of urban rail transit at home and abroad show that the systematic integration of subway,land,commerce and residence,and the implementation of the integrated development mode can fundamentally solve the financing pressure of urban rail transit project construction,shorten the investment payback period of the project and improve the overall profitability of the project.In the subway,land,commercial and residential in the process of integrated development,rail construction group as the development main body,need innovative fusion land,planning,finance and other related policies and tools,innovative design project financing mode and construction scheme,such innovation will bring the risk of substantial change.Therefore,it is necessary to identify and evaluate the risks of rail transit construction projects adopting the development mode of "metro + property" according to the basic theory of risk management,and formulate targeted risk disposal strategies to ensure the success of the project.From the perspective of the development subject of rail transit project,this thesis first uses the literature analysis method to analyze and classify the existing theoretical research literature,and identifies the risk list of the "metro + property" development mode of rail transit by using the method of integrating the work breakdown structure and the risk breakdown structure.Secondly,the risk of the development mode of "metro + property" of rail transit is assessed by the material element analysis method,and the evaluation shows that the preliminary planning risk is medium-high risk,and the remaining seven types of risks are moderate risk.Finally,taking Jinan urban rail transit construction project as an example,a targeted risk disposal strategy is designed based on the risk assessment results.Through thesis research,the risk factors of "metro + property" development mode are identified systematically.Compared with the conventional development and construction mode of rail transit projects,the "metro + property" mode has a high risk assessment value,and the design of risk disposal strategy needs to break the original development path and construction procedure of land planning and construction.The practice of the development mode of "metro + property" in Jinan urban rail transit has proved that the risk disposal strategy involved in this thesis can effectively reduce the possibility of the potential loss of the development mode of "metro + property",and ensure the effectiveness of the project development and construction.