Analysis Of The Evolution Characteristics Of China’s Household Energy Consumption And Exploration Of The Transformation Path

As the second largest energy consumption sector after the industrial sector,the energy consumption of China’s household sector is increasing year by year and the energy structure is highly carbonized.Therefore,in the context of global climate change,the household sector will become an important breakthrough in China’s energy consumption transformation in the future.Inequality of energy consumption and negative externalities of pollutant emissions are two issues that need to be paid attention to in the process of China’s household energy consumption transformation.However,"one-size-fits-all" policies such as "coal-to-gas" fail to take into account the differences in resource endowment and economic level among provinces,and it is difficult to solve the problem of energy consumption inequality and pollutant emissions from the root cause.Therefore,balancing energy consumption,pollutant emissions,economic costs,etc.,comprehensively considering constraints such as inter-regional energy demand,policy planning,etc.,and formulating a refined and differentiated home energy consumption transformation path plan is the focus of China’s future home energy consumption transformation.This study intends to use the Lorentz curve and the Gini coefficient to describe the inequality characteristics of household energy consumption under the differences in resource endowments and urban-rural economic differences,and use the Monte Carlo method to quantify the external impact of household energy consumption.On this basis,the influencing factors of spatial inequality of household energy consumption are further explored from the macro(spatial Durbin model)and micro(decision tree model)levels.Combined with the spatial difference characteristics of household energy consumption,external influences and main influencing factors,this study developed a set of high-dimensional and multi-objective models to simulate the transition path of household energy consumption in multiple regions,and introduced an improved multiobjective particle swarm algorithm to solve the problem.The results are as follows:(1)From the perspective of energy supply,coal,oil,and natural gas have significant spatial inequality and are weakly affected by energy supply,but the spatial correlation between household electricity consumption and electricity supply is strong.From the perspective of urban and rural differences,the spatial characteristics of urban and rural household natural gas consumption show great differences;but the urban and rural spatial characteristics of other types of energy are similar,indicating that other types of energy are less affected by urban and rural economies.In addition,under the influence of the existing household energy consumption transformation policy,the emissions of SO2 and PM in the household sector have decreased significantly,but the reduction of total CO2 emissions is not obvious.(2)At the macro level,GDP is a key factor affecting coal(-5.066),oil(0.287),and electricity(0.801);while supply has a lower effect on natural gas(-0.006);in addition,temperature and urban Population has a significant effect on heat consumption;from the perspective of urban-rural internal structure,urban-rural differences in coal and natural gas consumption have a strong relationship with regional economic levels;education level also affects urban-rural differences in coal and electricity consumption.At the micro level,the influence of regional factors and urban and rural factors on the choice of household energy consumption and energy expenditure gradually decreases,while the influence of economic income and fixed assets on energy choice and energy expenditure gradually increases.(3)The model optimization results show that it is estimated that in 2030,the optimal solution set range of China’s household energy consumption concerned in this study is 500.4-535.9 million tons;CO2,SO2,PM emissions are 147.7-166.4 million tons,90.1-127.2 In terms of cost,household energy consumption in 2030 will cause economic losses of 289.6-349.5 trillion yuan.Under the78 optimization scenarios,household energy consumption in each province can meet the constraints of economy and energy demand,but for provinces such as Guangxi,Shanghai,and Fujian,where oil,natural gas,and electricity are the mainstays,household carbon emissions may break through the "carbon peak" in the future.”constraints.