Analysis On The Influence Mechanism Of Geopolitical Relations On Energy Trade Network

Energy is closely linked to national strategy,global politics and power.As one of the most important commodities for national development and national lives,fossil energy has attracted more and more attention from researchers and policymakers.The uneven distribution of fossil fuel production and consumption among countries leads to international energy trade,which is highly susceptible to geopolitical influence due to the strategy characteristics of energy.The purpose of this thesis is to use complex network analysis methods to study the impact mechanism of geopolitical relations on energy trade,and to provide necessary suggestions for national energy strategies.First of all,use the social network analysis method and the advantages that GDELT database includes news events between countries to construct the interaction between countries that reflect geopolitics.This thesis selects some data and fields to reflect the geopolitical relationship from the two aspects of cooperation relationship and conflict relationship.This thesis analyzes the development characteristics and trends of international geopolitical relations reflected by the static network basic indicators and their evolution.International cooperation and conflicts have undergone drastic changes.On the one hand,there are initiatives for new cooperative relations,and on the other hand,there are ups and downs in national political conflicts.Then,construct an international energy trade network,analyzes network static basic index analysis and evolution analysis to reflect the development characteristics and trends of international energy trade,and then use the QAP weighted network analysis method to study the correlation between the geopolitical relationship network and the energy trade network.The QAP regression analysis method is used to empirically study the influence of cooperation networks and conflict networks on energy trade networks.From the perspective of geopolitical relations,the time-varying characteristics of internal and external energy trade of large and small commuties are studied respectively to illustrate the heterogeneity of geopolitical influence on energy trade network.It is found that the correlation between geopolitics and energy trade is high,in which the cooperation network significantly promotes energy trade,and the conflict network significantly inhibits energy trade.Finally,the exponential stochastic graph model of complex networks is used to explain the impact of geopolitical relationship networks on the formation of energy trade networks.The formation and evolution of trade networks can be explained from three aspects: endogenous structure,actor-relationship attributes,and external networks.From the perspective of geopolitical relations,study the influence of different relational model on the formation of the energy trade.It is found that geopolitics can affect energy trade in two ways,and countries should strive to find energy strategies that adapt to their own development.