Research On Coordinated Development Of Water-Energy-Food Coupling In Weifang City

Water resources,energy and food are the three basic resources for the survival and development of human society.There is a coupling and coordinated development relationship among the three resources,which complement each other and depend on each other.Affected by the increasing population,limited natural resources,rapid social and economic development,natural climate change and the normalization of the epidemic,the contradiction between the supply and demand of water,energy and food resources has become more prominent all over the world.While considering the balance between supply and demand of water,energy and food,coordinated development has become an important factor restricting the high-quality development of regional economy.Therefore,starting from the bond between water resources,energy and food,it is of great significance to carry out comprehensive research on the coordinated development of water,energy and food for promoting the green and high-quality development of society.Based on the relationship between water resources,energy and food,this paper first analyzes the historical development status of water resources,energy and food in Weifang from 2005 to 2020.Then,through the coupling coordination degree evaluation model,it studies the characteristics of the coupling coordination development and change of water,energy and food in Weifang.Finally,it uses the system dynamics model and scenario analysis method.The simulation predicted the current situation of water,energy and food in Weifang and the supply and demand of resources in different development situations,which provided different countermeasures for the green and sustainable development of Weifang.The main conclusions include:(1)Historical data of Weifang showed that water demand decreased year by year,but rebounded in recent years;Energy consumption is mainly non-clean energy and increasing year by year.The per unit yield and output of grain and vegetables are among the top.Natural disasters and adjustment of cultivated land area have become the main factors limiting development.(2)Through the analysis of coupling coordination evaluation model,the development level of water-energy-grain system in Weifang City showed an overall rising trend;The degree of coupling and coordinated development is at the intermediate stage of high level coupling and coordinated development,with low degree of dispersion and high degree of mutual influence among the systems.The large fluctuation of water resources caused by drought and flood,the contradiction between supply and demand of the energy system,the adjustment of cultivated land area and "non-grain" and other problems have a great impact on the degree of coupling coordination of the system.Further improving regional drought and disaster reduction capacity,energy security capacity,crop disaster resistance capacity and reasonable adjustment of cultivated land area can promote the coordinated and sustainable development of water,energy and food in Weifang City.(3)The system dynamics model and scenario analysis method were used to predict the supply and demand of resources in Weifang under different development scenarios in the future.The results showed that the future fluctuation of water resources consumption in Weifang was mainly affected by agricultural and domestic water consumption.Energy demand increases year by year and is still dominated by non-clean energy with little improvement in utilization efficiency.The output of grain and vegetables was relatively stable,and the target of 8.5 billion jin could be achieved in each scenario.Therefore,in the short term,appropriate adjustment of grain seeding proportion and reasonable control of vegetable area can achieve the yield target and reduce the pressure of agricultural water demand.We should pay more attention to the risks brought by population economic factors,such as the increase in water demand,pollutant discharge and reduction of agricultural labor force.We should further accelerate the construction of water saving and environmental protection in daily life,and actively introduce policies to strengthen agriculture and benefit the people while keeping pace with economic development and water efficiency.Focus on solving the problem of lagging development of the energy system,accelerate industrial transformation to improve energy efficiency,vigorously develop straw biomass energy and other new clean energy,so as to ease energy-water pressure,reduce industrial pollution emissions;We will increase the yield of grain and vegetables per unit area,focusing on controlling the proportion of sown areas,cultivating new drought-resistant crops,and making them non-grain.