Research On The Coordinated Development Model Of China's Energy And Industrial Structure

The energy structure and industrial structure not only have its own characteristics to develop and change independently,but also have mutual influence and promotion to each other.Lots of scholars have done a lot of research on this topic.The 13 th Five Year Plan and the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China provided important guidance with respect to the coordinated development of energy production and industrial growth.In other words,China must embrace the energy revolution actively,while vigorously developing its economy and optimizing its industrial structure to promote modernization.China must enhance the efficiency of energy utilization,and build a clean(low-carbon),safe and efficient energy system to augment its energy supply structure.However,the issues of imbalance and lack of coordination between economic growth and energy consumption are critical.Further and systematic research on the coordinated development of energy structure and industrial structure is of great significance for China's sustainable economic development.On the basis of summarizing the evolution law of energy structure and industrial structure,the interaction relationship between China's energy structure and industrial structure is explored with the help of grey correlation analysis method.With the logarithmic mean Divisia index technique,we have analyzed the impact of energy structure,technological progress,industrial structure and sector structure on China's energy intensity and established the evolution mechanism model of energy and industrial structure.We developed a dynamic simulation model of the coordinated development of energy structure and industrial structure based on energy economy theory and system dynamics method.Then,the orthogonal scenario analysis method is firstly established by combining the orthogonal experiment with the scenario analysis.The orthogonal scenario analysis model is established to scientifically plan the most representative scenario of the coordinated development of China's energy structure and industrial structure in 2030.And we predict scientifically the important variable and index values of respresentative orthogonal scenario planning scheme of China's energy structure and industrial structure coordinated development in 2030.The coordination degree model of the index system is established to obtain the optimal scheme for the coordinated development of China's energy structure and industrial structure,and the policy suggestions for the coordinated development of China's energy structure and industrial structure are put forward.The research results show that the better scenario of the coordinated development of China's energy and industrial structure in 2030 is that the proportion of coal consumption is 2.5%?60.4% and 37.1%,the proportion of crude oil consumption is 3.3% ? 15.3% and 81.4% respectively from first industry to tertiary industry.The influence of the industrial structure,the output of raw coal,regulation policy of the supply of crude oil in the industrial structure,the import of crude oil and the regulation policy of the supply of raw coal in the industrial structure factors are gradually becomes smaller.In terms of the national optimization policy of China's industrial structure relies mainly on the steady development of the primary industry,improvement and upgrading of the secondary industry,and promotion of the tertiary industry.The suggestions for the development of the industrial structure are as follows: The growth rate of secondary industry has declined by 1% a year.However,it increased by 1% in tertiary industry and the rate seemed to be balanced in the primary industry.The output of raw coal should decelerate by about 2% per year,and the growth rate of crude oil import should be controlled by around 1.5 % per year.The crude oil supply in the tertiary industry was gradually transferred to the secondary industry by an annual growth rate of around 6%.Meanwhile,the supply of raw coal in the second industry is gradually transferred to the third industry by around 9.5%.