Research On Spatio-temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Water-saving Biased Technological Progress In The Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin is a strategic economic and geographical region in China.In 2019,the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin became a major national strategy.The promotion of this strategy cannot be separated from the support of technological progress.Biased technological progress can adjust the input degree and structure of factors,improve the marginal productivity of factors,and the driving effect is more obvious.Considering that the shortage of water resources is the biggest rigid constraint in the Yellow River Basin,this paper puts water resources elements into the index system of biased technological progress,investigates the technological progress of water resources elements,supplements the theoretical research of biased technological progress,adjusts the input of water resources elements in a targeted manner,and analyzes the role of water-saving biased technological progress in the ecological protection and high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River Basin.Based on Hicks’ theory of biased technological progress,combined with the reality of the Yellow River basin,this paper selects water resources input factors into the index system,which expands the theoretical framework of biased technological progress.On the basis of constructing the factor structure of water resources,this paper calculates the water-saving biased technological progress index of 97 prefecture-level cities in the basin from 2010 to 2020 by DEA-Malmquist index decomposition method,and determines the actual factor bias of technological progress by combining the intertemporal proportion of factors.Furthermore,Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,σ convergence and β convergence models are applied to study the evolution characteristics and dynamic convergence trend of water-saving biased technological progress in the Yellow River basin and the upper,middle and lower reaches.On this basis,using double fixed panel regression model and path analysis method,the direction,mode and degree of influencing factors on the progress and development of water-saving biased technology were investigated.The main findings are as follows:(1)There are significant differences in the bias of technological progress factors in different regions.On the whole,from 2010 to 2015,the technological progress in the Yellow River Basin tended to use capital,save water resources,use water resources and save labor.After 2016,the degree of water saving in some cities weakened.Regionally,the bias of upstream technological progress factors is consistent with the overall situation of the basin.In 2014-2017,the technological progress in the middle reaches mainly focused on using capital and saving water resources,and after 2018,it was more focused on saving capital.Downstream technological progress always tends to use capital and save water resources,and technological progress tends to save water obviously.(2)The relative spatial difference and evolution heterogeneity of water-saving biased technological progress are obvious.On the whole,in 2012 and 2014,the priority development of central cities was obvious,and the spillover of resources and technical experience promoted the gradual narrowing of regional differences.Regionally,the difference between upstream cities is the largest,while the difference between downstream cities is the smallest.The middle reaches are the epitome of the evolution trend of water-saving biased technological progress in the whole basin.The relative differences between regions are roughly in the distribution of "upstream-downstream >upstream-midstream > middle-downstream".Supervariable density has the highest contribution rate to the differential evolution of water-saving biased technological progress.(3)The absolute spatial difference of water-saving biased technological progress shows a divergent evolution trend.On the whole,the unbalanced degree of water-saving biased technological progress and development in cities has increased,showing a certain divergent trend.Regionally,the progress and development of upstream water-saving biased technology presents a process of "divergence → convergence →divergence";The midstream shows a process of "convergence → divergence";The downstream presents a process of "convergence → divergence → convergence",and the difference between the upper and middle reaches tends to expand,while the difference between the lower reaches gradually narrows.Water-saving biased cities generally show a convergence trend;Non-water-saving cities are more divergent and tend to expand.In terms of spatial convergence trend,the overall convergence of the basin mainly depends on the downstream areas.The upstream convergence rate is the fastest,followed by the midstream,and the downstream convergence rate is the slowest.(4)The paper select six influencing factors: resource dependence,environmental pollution,capital factor endowment,government regulation,industrial structure and water resources richness to study.On the whole,environmental pollution,government regulation and industrial structure have a positive role in promoting water-saving biased technological progress in the Yellow River Basin.The positive direct effect of environmental pollution is the greatest,and the positive indirect effect of government regulation through environmental pollution is the greatest.Regionally,there are certain heterogeneity in the upper,middle and lower reaches.Upstream resource dependence has the greatest indirect effect through capital deepening.The comprehensive promotion effect of the influencing factors in the middle reaches is stronger than that in the upper reaches.Except for the water resources richness,other factors have a positive promotion effect,and the water resources richness plays the most indirect role through resource dependence.Downstream environmental pollution and industrial structure play an obvious role in promoting water-saving biased technological progress,but government regulation has a negative obstacle and a high degree.Environmental pollution plays a positive role indirectly through other factors.The innovations of this paper are as follows: Based on the urban reality in the Yellow River basin,and on the basis of the combination of capital and labor factors,the water resource factors are brought into the biased technological progress index system,to investigate whether the technological progress in the production of the Yellow River basin is biased to save water resources and promote the efficient use of water resources.Based on the background of the Yellow River basin,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of water-saving biased technological progress in the Yellow River basin were investigated.