Study On The Adjustment Of The Operration Plan Of The Arrival And Departure Tracks Of High-speed Railway Stations Under The Condition That The Arrival Time Is Uncertain Due To The Delay Of The Train

Affected by elements such as bad weather and equipment failure,high-speed rail trains may be delayed during operation,which may cause many negative effects.Disrupting the station’s arrival and departure tracks operation plan is one of them.With the progressively growth of the coverage of our country’s high-speed railway,the number of train operations has increased accordingly,and the adjustment to the arrival and departure tracks operation plan has become an eager and complex problem to be settled.At present,domestic and foreign research principally concentrates on the optimization of station throat utilization and arrival and departure tracks utilization plan under non-delayed conditions,while there are comparatively little studies on the adjustment of high-speed railway station arrival and departure tracks utilization plan under the condition of train delays.About how to adjust to the arrival and departure tracks application plan,the existing research mostly regards the initial delay time of the train as a known constant value.However,in the daily operation of the railway,the appearance of a delay is an uncertain event,and the corresponding delay time is also uncertain.In response to this situation,this paper takes the initial train delay time as a random variable in a known distribution form from the actual situation,and then solves this problem by constructing a method of adjusting the stochastic programming model for the arrival and departure tracks of the high-speed railway station under the delay.The principal task of this paper includes the following parts:(1)Analyze the problems related to the operation of the arrival and departure tracks of high-speed railway stations under the condition of delays,mainly including: the technical operation process and operation time of the high-speed railway station trains,the factors affecting the arrival and departure tracks utilization,the type of train delays,the causes of the delay,and the influence of the train delays,the adjustment principle of the arrival and departure tracks operation plan,and the identification method of the train approach conflict.(2)Taking the initial train delay time as a known constant,construct a deterministic arrival and departure tracks application plan adjustment model,and clarify the assumptions,parameters,objective functions and constraints in the model.On this basis,the initial delay time in the deterministic model is transformed into a random variable with a known distribution form,and then the above deterministic model is transformed into an arrival and departure tracks application plan adjustment chance constrained programming model based on chance constrained programming.This model deals with the uncertainty of the initial delay time of the train by setting the confidence level.(3)Design a genetic algorithm to deal with the chance constrained programming model of the arrival and departure tracks application plan adjustment.In order to deal with the chance constraint that contains the confidence level in the model,stochastic simulation technology is introduced into the algorithm design.The algorithm design work is completed through the steps of coding,initializing the population,checking constraint conditions,calculating the fitness function value,and genetic operations.(4)Taking High-speed Station of Wuhan Station as a case station,selecting 8:30 to 12:30in the morning of a certain peak day in October 2014 as the research period,and selecting 30 trains as the research object.Based on a variety of known causes of initial delays in the distribution of delays,abovementioned case calculations are executed separately.By analyzing the count results,it can be seen that the high-speed railway station arrival and departure tracks application plan adjustment chance constrained programming model in this paper is equitable to a certain degree,and the model algorithm also shows a certain degree of validity and rationality in the calculation process.It can be seen from the calculation results that the number of trains occupying the originally planned arrival and departure tracks is significantly different under the conditions of different types of delays.This shows that when processing various delays,the station should make different levels of preparation for the two tasks of changing the train’s arrival and departure tracks and notifying arriving passengers to change the ticket gate.In addition,for different reasons of delay,the station has different priority access preferences for trains from the motor vehicle application,Beijing direction and Guangzhou direction.The arrival and departure tracks application plan calculated by the model fully considers the condition of uncertain factors disturbing the driving,and the model can be used to calculate the various types of delay causes whose initial delay time conforms to different distribution forms,thus,the adjusted optimal arrival and departure tracks application plan can be obtained.The plan can be used as an important basis for the arrival and departure of trains after delays and the arrangement of arrival and departure tracks for them,and can provide a reference for the adjustment of the arrival and departure tracks of the station in response to different causes of delays,which can promote the level of station automation in effect,ensure the efficient completion of the driving plan and indirectly improve the quality of passenger service.