Research On The Potential Of Energy Trade Between China And ASEAN Countries

The year 2021 marks the 30 th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between China and ASEAN countries,and the bilateral relations have developed rapidly over the past 30 years.China has been the first trading partner of ASEAN for several consecutive years.Since 2020,ASEAN has also become China’s largest trading partner.Energy trade is also the main theme of China ASEAN cooperation,and oil and gas cooperation has also become a highlight of trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries.In recent years,China has continuously increased its oil imports from ASEAN countries,which are also one of the main sources of China’s natural gas imports.The energy trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries is highly complementary,with good diplomatic relations and geographical advantages.Therefore,studying the energy trade potential between China and ASEAN countries is of great significance for promoting the bilateral energy trade towards deeper cooperation.This article takes China and ASEAN countries as the research object,and first analyzes the current situation of energy trade between China and ASEAN countries from the perspective of bilateral energy trade scale,structure,proportion of energy trade,direct investment,and energy investment projects.Then,the competitiveness and complementarity index is used to measure the closeness and dependence of energy trade between China and ASEAN countries.Finally,based on the actual situation of China and ASEAN countries,a gravity model is constructed to empirically analyze the factors affecting energy trade between China and ASEAN countries,and calculate the potential value of energy trade between ASEAN countries,thereby further demonstrating the importance of energy trade between China and ASEAN countries.Based on the above analysis and research,feasible suggestions are proposed.The research results show that the overall scale of energy trade between China and ASEAN countries is growing,with a perennial energy trade deficit and significant differences in the product structure of energy trade.The energy trade between China and ASEAN countries is less competitive and highly complementary.The energy trade between China and major ASEAN countries(excluding individual countries)is very close,and is generally in a steady upward trend.The energy trade potential of ASEAN countries can be divided into three types:Myanmar belongs to potential reshaping;Vietnam,Brunei,Indonesia,Singapore,Malaysia,Thailand,the Philippines,and Cambodia are trade development oriented;Laos is of great potential.According to the types of energy trade development between China and ASEAN countries,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed: seek different potential growth points for different potential countries,further promote the energy agreement of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area,and increase the areas of trade cooperation based on the complementarity of energy trade.