Research On The Pricing Of Railway Bulk Freight Under Risk-neutral Conditions

Railway transportation is an important part of China’s comprehensive transportation system,and its freight price level directly affects the national economy and social development,while bulk freight occupies a major position in railway freight transportation.In order to promote the development of railway freight transportation,and enhance its market competitiveness,China Railway Corporation has been constantly implementing the reform of freight transportation organization since the separation of government and enterprises in 2013.With the continuous advancement of the market-oriented reform of railway freight transportation,railway transportation enterprises are able to adjust part of freight prices independently according to the market supply and demand.The “14th Five-year plan” for the development of modern comprehensive transportation system proposes to promote the development of " road transportation to railway transportation and shipping" for bulk cargo transportation.Therefore,how to take advantage of the opportunity of railway freight reform to build a railway bulk freight pricing system that adapts to the development of market economy and helps railway transportation enterprises to participate in market competition.It is one of the topics with strong practical significance is to provide technical support for the promotion of market-oriented reform of railway bulk freight.This paper focuses on the theme of railway bulk freight pricing under risk-neutral conditions,sorts out the reform course of China’s railway freight transportation,expounds the freight pricing model.On this basis,this paper excavates the existing problems of China’s current pricing system,and puts forward the urgency of establishing a railway freight pricing system that meets the requirements of market-oriented reform.The option theory is introduced into the pricing problem of railway bulk freight.Aiming at the potential risks,the option pricing model of railway bulk freight is constructed based on the risk-neutral perspective.The model can effectively avoid the risk of price fluctuation in the freight market for enterprises and customers at the same time.Secondly,the existing solution methods are compared and selected.According to the research object and solution limitations of this paper,the canonical valuation method is proposed.With the help of matlab software,the constructed model is numerically analyzed to predict the canonical estimation values of railway bulk freight option price,and compare them with the theoretical values obtained by Black-Scholes model to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.The numerical erperimental results show that the canonical valuation pricing method is more applacable to the railway bulk freight option pricing than the Black-Scholes model,especially when the option strike price is lower than the initial freight price and the option expiration time is small.Therefore,the canonical valuation pricing method is a supplement to the pricing method of railway bulk freight.This study can provide a new idea for the improvement of China’s railway bulk freight pricing mechanism,and provide a theoretical basis for the future development of railway bulk freight in the field of option pricing.