Research On Development Strategy Of Ultra-low Energy Consumption Building Under Carbon Neutral Background

China’s society is opening the road of green,low-carbon and high-quality development around the"dual carbon"goal and the"dual circulation"development pattern.With the continuous advancement of new urbanization,the problems of energy consumption and environmental pollution brought about by the rapid development of the construction industry need to be solved urgently.Under the perspective of the"dual carbon"goal,the development of ultra-low energy consumption buildings will help save resources,protect the environment,promote the green transformation and upgrading of the construction industry,and promote sustainable economic development.However,due to the late start of ultra-low energy buildings in China,the technology is not yet mature,which hinders the development of ultra-low energy buildings to a certain extent.In view of the current development status of ultra-low energy buildings,this paper conducts research on their promotion and industrialization development,in order to promote the sustainable and steady development of ultra-low energy buildings in China and help the construction industry achieve carbon neutrality as soon as possible.Based on the perspective of the whole life cycle,this paper selects the research subjects from both ends of supply and demand,identifies the factors affecting the development of the ultra-low energy building market,uses the system dynamics theory,establishes a causal relationship diagram,simulates and analyzes the factors affecting the development of ultra-low energy buildings,and determines the key influencing factors and core participants.Because the balance of interests among the participants in the implementation of ultra-low energy buildings is the key to realizing the industrialization of ultra-low energy buildings.In order to promote the industrialization of ultra-low energy buildings,the evolutionary game theory is used to construct an evolutionary game model between core subjects（government and developers）,explore the dominant relationship between the government and developers in the ultra-low energy building market,reveal the dynamic interaction between the government and developers,and construct a system dynamics model,use Vensim PLE test software to perform numerical simulation,and explore the influence of different parameter changes on the evolution path and equilibrium strategy of the subject.According to the research and simulation results,the strategy to promote the development of ultra-low energy buildings is proposed from the aspects of government,policies and standards,incentive mechanism,technological innovation and publicity and promotion,in order to promote the steady development of ultra-low energy buildings.The results show that the supply side cost factor has the greatest impact on the development of ultra-low energy buildings,followed by finance and policy.Through comparative analysis from the demand side,founding that the change of quantity energy on the demand side can stimulate the development of ultra-low energy buildings more.As the core interests of the development of ultra-low energy buildings,the government and developers have played a huge role in promoting the industrialization.A reduction in incremental costs（D₃）and an increase in government subsidies（S）and penalties（P）can encourage developers to develop ultra-low energy buildings.The effect of reducing the incremental cost of developers is the best,followed by government subsidies,and the effect of punishing developers is not so good.The research results will help promote the industrialization of ultra-low energy buildings,promote the green transformation and upgrading of the construction industry,and promote the sustainable and steady development of the construction industry.