Research On Demand Forecast And Functional Areas Layout Planning Of Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center

As an important carrier of China-Europe railway freight,railway logistics center is the main hub of regional economic development and the key element of social logistics operation,but the traditional railway logistics center still has problems such as low degree of logistics informatization,imperfect market-oriented configuration and unreasonable layout of functional areas.As an important node city for the development of the "Belt and Road",Xuzhou has promoted the high-quality development of the regional economy since the launch of the China-Europe Express Train.However,with the increase in the number of trains and the increasing variety of goods transported,Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center has problems such as unreasonable route planning,imperfect operation land and uncertain cargo demand,which is difficult to support the cargo transportation of China-Europe trains and the normal operation of the whole line.Therefore,accurately predicting the logistics needs of Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center and laying out its functional areas play a key role in improving the operational efficiency of the logistics system.Based on a thorough review of numerous domestic and international research papers,this thesis explores and studies two aspects of railway logistics centers: cargo demand forecasting and functional area layout.The main areas of focus include:(1)This thesis briefly describes the concept and types of railway logistics centers under the background of modern logistics and analyzes the current development status of railway logistics centers.It suggests that while optimizing railway freight services,we should accurately predict cargo volume and simplify logistics operation processes.The thesis further elaborates on the concepts,steps,and methods of logistics demand to forecast and proposes the basic objectives,principles,and ideas for layout planning.(2)The thesis analyzes the construction background and significance of the Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center.It evaluates the basic conditions of the Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center from various aspects,such as industrial structure,transportation environment,and the development status of the logistics industry.The functional positioning of the center is determined from three aspects: strategic positioning,market positioning,and system functionality.(3)The thesis clarifies the methods for demand forecasting in railway logistics centers and carries out freight volume forecasting for the Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center based on the summarized forecasting ideas.First,the entropy-weighted grey relational analysis is used to determine the weightage of different years and the impact of influencing factors on freight volume.Then,the accuracy of GM(1,1)-Markov and BP neural network predictions is compared and analyzed.The thesis further proposes using the least squares method to combine the two models to determine the regional freight volume for Xuzhou City in 2025.Finally,the railway freight volume to be handled by the Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center is determined based on the number of arrivals and departures of China-Europe freight trains.(4)The thesis proposes detailed rules for the division of functional areas in railway logistics centers and researches the functional area layout of the Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center.First,the corresponding specific areas are determined based on the types of divisions;next,the shortcomings and improvement measures of the traditional Systematic Layout Planning(SLP)method are analyzed,and the factors influencing the functional area layout are examined.Then,the layout planning model for the Xuzhou Railway Logistics Center is constructed,and the optimal layout plan is obtained using a genetic algorithm.Finally,considering the development strategy of the logistics center and the traffic situation,the plan is adjusted and evaluated accordingly.