Evaluation And Optimization Of Traffic Supply And Demand Coordination In Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

Traffic supply system and demand system are two complex systems which interact and restrict each other.Good coordination degree of traffic supply and demand plays a positive role in promoting the high quality development of regional economy,but problems such as unbalanced and uncoordinated development of traffic supply and demand in the region will hinder the development of regional economy.As our new economic growth pole,but also an important strategic point in the development of the west,the twin cities economic circle in Chongqing area has a very high strategic position in the national development strategy.In this context,the research on the development status of urban traffic supply and demand within the economic circle,the intensity of economic and transport links between cities,and the coordination degree of traffic supply and demand can provide reference for the traffic construction layout and economic development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic Circle.First of all,this article combs the domestic and foreign about the traffic and the economic correlation theory and the city traffic literature,in order to establish the theoretical basis for the coupling and coordinated development of traffic supply and demand.Secondly,qualitative and quantitative methods are used to analyze the current situation of traffic supply and demand in the economic circle,and indicators are constructed to measure the intensity of economic connection and transport connection between city pairs.Based on the quantitative analysis of the development level of supply and demand,a coupling coordination degree model was built to measure the development of the coordination degree of supply and demand in each city from the two latitudes of time and space,and a convergence model was built to analyze the convergence of the development of the coordination degree.Thirdly,the grey relational degree model is used to analyze the influencing factors of traffic supply,traffic demand and their coordination degree respectively.The grey prediction model and exponential smoothing method are used to make a comparative analysis of the prediction results of the coordination degree.Finally,the support vector machine(SVM)model is used to predict the passenger volume change trend of Chengdu and Chongqing in the next five years.Main research conclusions:(1)There is a significant imbalance in the development of traffic supply and demand in the economic circle.Chengdu and Chongqing have obvious advantages,and the urban traffic demand is generally greater than the traffic supply.(2)The intensity of economic and transport links of cities is generally low,showing a decreasing trend around Chengdu and Chongqing,and the total intensity of economic and transport links of cities far away from the central cities is low.(3)The uneven development of coordination degree is significant,showing that Chengdu and Chongqing are higher,the central depression,the north is higher than the south in the early stage,and the north-south coordination degree tends to be consistent over time,and the spatial agglomeration effect is not obvious.(4)The development level of supply is mainly affected by highway mileage,grade highway mileage and highway freight volume.The economic circle is dominated by highway transportation,and increasing railway supply can greatly improve the level of urban transportation supply.The demand side is mainly affected by per capita disposable income,the proportion of tertiary industry and tourist population.The main factors affecting the coordination degree of supply and demand are resident population,employed population and urbanization rate.(5)There is no convergence phenomenon in the coordination degree within the economic circle,the regional gap shows a widening trend,the coordination degree gap between cities may continue to widen,and the overall coordination level of the economic circle continues to rise.In the next five years,the passenger volume of Chengdu will decrease slightly,while the passenger volume of Chongqing will increase year by year.Finally,according to the research results,it is found that the problems of traffic supply and demand development in Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle mainly include insufficient traffic supply capacity,unbalanced development of transportation infrastructure,low intensity of inter-city economic and transportation connection,limited driving role of dual-core,and urgent need to strengthen secondary hubs.In view of the above problems,optimization suggestions are put forward in order to help the high quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.