Analysis And Prediction Of Residential Building Energy Consumption Based On Energy-saving Development Strategy And Climate Warming

After the reform and opening up,with the improvement of material conditions and the expansion of per capita living area,people’s demand for indoor thermal environment of residential buildings has also increased significantly,which has led to a huge increase in energy consumption of residential buildings in our country.At the same time,fossil energy is becoming increasingly depleted,and environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious.For this reason,our country has to pay attention to the energysaving problem of residential buildings,and has successively issued a series of energysaving design standards for residential buildings,and constantly explored,revised and improved them.In order to fully understand the development process of energy-saving standards for residential buildings in our country,this paper conducts a longitudinal and quantitative analysis and comparison of relevant standards in different years and versions,and clearly depicts its development track and trend.On this basis,a building model was established based on different versions of the standards.Using software such as HDY-SMAD and TRNSYS,parameters such as cooling and heating loads,cooling and heating energy consumption,and primary energy consumption of typical urban residential buildings in various climatic zones were simulated,and the trends of these parameters with the development of building energy efficiency standards were analysed to quantify the magnitude of their changes.On the basis of clarifying the development trend of energy-saving standards for residential buildings in the past,and referring to the development laws of relevant standards in developed countries,the future development trend of energy-saving standards for residential buildings in our country is speculated.With the help of future meteorological parameters,the energy consumption of residential buildings in my country is predicted in the next 80 years.The research results show that the thermal insulation performance of residential building envelopes in our country does not increase monotonously with the development of energy-saving standards,but is increasingly rationalized.The limit value of heat transfer coefficient increases or decreases in different regions and different enclosure structures.Since the standard was updated,the area thermal index of residential buildings in severe cold and cold regions has been reduced by 35.27% and49.62% respectively;the area cold index of residential buildings in hot summer and cold winter areas and hot summer and warm winter areas has been reduced by 4.29%and 13.50% respectively.The heat consumption of residential buildings in severe cold areas decreases with the update of the standards,and the cooling consumption increases;the opposite is true in areas with hot summer and cold winter and hot summer and warm winter.After converted into primary energy,the cooling and heat consumption in all climate regions showed a downward trend,with the decline rates being 52.76% in severe cold regions,60.28% in cold regions,5.49% in hot summer and cold winter regions,and 4.24% in hot summer and warm winter regions.It can be seen that the improvement of standards has produced energy-saving effects,and the effect is particularly significant in severe cold regions.The development law of relevant standards in developed countries shows that residential building energy efficiency standards will tend to be stable for a long period of time in the future and will not change significantly.However,under the RCP8.5 carbon emission scenario,the climate is becoming warm significantly.This will lead to possible climate zone shifts in some cities.And due to climate warming,after 80 years,the total primary energy consumption of residential buildings in severe cold areas for heating and air conditioning will gradually decrease,while in cold areas,hot summer and cold winter areas,and hot summer and warm winter areas,it will increase compared with today.The paper estimates the trends and percentages of changes in the above parameters in the next 30,50,and 80 years.The results of this research can help us scientifically understand the development law of relevant standards in our country,and provide theoretical reference for the formulation of relevant policy standards in the future and the design of HVAC systems for residential buildings.